Padova 1-2 Virtus Entella – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Virtus Entella at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Padova vs Virtus Entella fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 7 as Padova welcome Virtus Entella to Stadio Comunale Euganeo. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 October 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Padova — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Padova have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Padova's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Comunale Euganeo this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Serie B games this season, Virtus Entella have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Virtus Entella have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Virtus Entella's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Padova at 1.60 PPG versus Virtus Entella's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Padova have won 1, Virtus Entella 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 0–1 with Virtus Entella winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Padova in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Virtus Entella in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Padova 50% versus Virtus Entella 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Padova 39% | Virtus Entella 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Padova 0.95 xG and Virtus Entella 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Padova attack 0.784 / defence 0.973 | Virtus Entella attack 0.933 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.253. Padova's attack strength of 0.784 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 Padova games / 44 Virtus Entella games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Padova 29% | Draw 32% | Virtus Entella 39%. Fair-value odds: Padova 3.45 | Draw 3.12 | Virtus Entella 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Virtus Entella are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Virtus Entella offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Padova 40% | Virtus Entella 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Padova vs Virtus Entella | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Euganeo • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Padova 29% | Draw 32% | Virtus Entella 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Padova 0.95 / Virtus Entella 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Padova attack 0.784 / def 0.973 | Virtus Entella attack 0.933 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Virtus Entella (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Padova xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Virtus Entella xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Padova vs Virtus Entella kick off?
Padova vs Virtus Entella kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Stadio Comunale Euganeo.
What was the final score in Padova vs Virtus Entella?
Padova 1 - 2 Virtus Entella.
Where is Padova vs Virtus Entella being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Euganeo.
What competition is Padova vs Virtus Entella part of?
Padova vs Virtus Entella is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Padova vs Virtus Entella?
Our statistical model gives Padova a 29% chance of winning, Virtus Entella a 39% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Virtus Entella the favourite.
Will both teams score in Padova vs Virtus Entella?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Padova and Virtus Entella will score (BTTS).
Will Padova vs Virtus Entella have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Padova and Virtus Entella?
Record (2 meetings): Padova 1W | Draws 0 | Virtus Entella 1W.
What form are Padova and Virtus Entella in?
Padova (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Virtus Entella (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Padova's attack rating (0.78) and Virtus Entella's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Virtus Entella's attack versus Padova's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Virtus Entella Win
29%
3.44
32%
3.12
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Padova xG
Total xG
2.08
1.14
Virtus Entella xG
3.44
29%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
9%
10.74
15%
6.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 14.1 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Padova vs Virtus Entella?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Padova and Virtus Entella expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Padova and 1.14 for Virtus Entella, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Padova vs Virtus Entella?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Padova come into this having played 44 games, going 14W 11D 19L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Padova, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Virtus Entella sit at 1.09 PPG from 44 outings (11W 15D 18L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Virtus Entella, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Padova on 1.20 PPG, Virtus Entella on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Padova's home form reads 7W 8D 7L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Virtus Entella have taken 0.55 points per game from 22 outings (2W 6D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.09 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Virtus Entella's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Padova come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Padova are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Virtus Entella are on 1.00 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Padova
Early Season
Virtus Entella
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Padova and Virtus Entella in coming into this match?
Padova have gone 14W 11D 19L in their last 44 games (1.20 PPG), while Virtus Entella have gone 11W 15D 18L in their last 44 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Padova at home or Virtus Entella away?
Padova's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Padova at home: 1.32 PPG; Virtus Entella away: 0.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Padova and Virtus Entella runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Virtus Entella have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Padova's record when hosting Virtus Entella specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Padova
0
Draws
2
Virtus Entella
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Padova and Virtus Entella?
From 3 meetings on record, Padova have won 1, Virtus Entella have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Padova and Virtus Entella last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when Padova 1-2 Virtus Entella.
Who has won more matches between Padova and Virtus Entella?
Virtus Entella have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Padova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Virtus Entella see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Padova 54%, Virtus Entella 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 32% for Padova and 32% for Virtus Entella.
On the defensive side: Virtus Entella in 59%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Padova home games / Virtus Entella away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Padova play Virtus Entella?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Padova's recent matches and 36% of Virtus Entella's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Padova vs Virtus Entella usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Padova's recent games and 32% of Virtus Entella's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Padova and Virtus Entella tend to score early?
Padova have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Virtus Entella in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Virtus Entella edge out Padova 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Virtus Entella beat Padova 1-2 at Stadio Comunale Euganeo, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Padova 0.95 xG and Virtus Entella 1.14 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Virtus Entella outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Padova attack 0.78 / defence 0.97 against Virtus Entella attack 0.93 / defence 0.91, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Padova 29% | Draw 32% | Virtus Entella 39%, with Virtus Entella to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Padova 39%, Virtus Entella 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Padova's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Virtus Entella's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Padova 1.20 PPG, Virtus Entella 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Virtus Entella win broke the near-deadlock. Padova (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Virtus Entella (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.59 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.