Padova 0-2 Carrarese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Padova at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Padova vs Carrarese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Carrarese travel to Stadio Comunale Euganeo to take on Padova. The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 October 2026, 15:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Padova have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Padova have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Padova have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stadio Comunale Euganeo — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Comunale Euganeo.
Carrarese — All Games: 0W 3D 7L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Carrarese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Carrarese's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Padova carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 0.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Padova, 0 for Carrarese and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2026, ended 1–0 with Padova winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Padova trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Carrarese trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Padova 51% versus Carrarese 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Padova 40% | Carrarese 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Padova 1.17 xG and Carrarese 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Padova attack 0.900 / defence 0.879 | Carrarese attack 0.845 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.333 / away 1.186. Data: 43 Padova games / 43 Carrarese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Padova 41% | Draw 33% | Carrarese 26%. Fair-value odds: Padova 2.44 | Draw 3.03 | Carrarese 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Padova as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Padova offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.05 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Padova 40% | Carrarese 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Padova vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Euganeo • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Oct 2026, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Padova 41% | Draw 33% | Carrarese 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Padova 1.17 / Carrarese 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Padova attack 0.900 / def 0.879 | Carrarese attack 0.845 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.333 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Padova (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Padova xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Carrarese xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Padova vs Carrarese kick off?
Padova vs Carrarese kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 11 October 2026 at Stadio Comunale Euganeo.
What was the final score in Padova vs Carrarese?
Padova 0 - 2 Carrarese.
Where is Padova vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Euganeo.
What competition is Padova vs Carrarese part of?
Padova vs Carrarese is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Padova vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Padova a 41% chance of winning, Carrarese a 26% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Padova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Padova vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Padova and Carrarese will score (BTTS).
Will Padova vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Padova and Carrarese?
Record (2 meetings): Padova 1W | Draws 1 | Carrarese 0W.
What form are Padova and Carrarese in?
Padova (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Carrarese (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Padova's attack rating (0.90) and Carrarese's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Carrarese's attack versus Padova's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Padova Win
41%
2.42
33%
3.07
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Padova xG
Total xG
2.05
0.88
Carrarese xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
17%
5.85
8%
12.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 11.3 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.3 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Padova vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Padova and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Padova and 0.88 for Carrarese, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Padova vs Carrarese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, Padova have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 14W 11D 18L record — W-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Padova, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Carrarese's form line: 10W 15D 18L from 43 games, 1.05 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Carrarese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Padova on 1.23 PPG, Carrarese on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Padova have posted 1.38 PPG from 21 outings (7W 8D 6L).
On the road, Carrarese have gone 3W 7D 11L from 21 away games — 0.76 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Padova come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Padova are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 1.14 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Padova
Early Season
Carrarese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Padova and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Padova have gone 14W 11D 18L in their last 43 games (1.23 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 10W 15D 18L in their last 43 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Padova at home or Carrarese away?
Padova's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Padova at home: 1.38 PPG; Carrarese away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 11 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Padova's record when hosting Carrarese specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Padova
1
Draws
1
Carrarese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Padova and Carrarese?
From 3 meetings on record, Padova have won 1, Carrarese have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Padova and Carrarese last play each other?
They last met on 11 October 2026, when Padova 0-2 Carrarese.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Padova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Carrarese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Padova 57%, Carrarese 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Padova) and 52% (Carrarese).
On the defensive side: Carrarese in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Padova home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Padova play Carrarese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Padova's games and 62% of Carrarese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Padova vs Carrarese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Padova's recent games and 52% of Carrarese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Padova and Carrarese tend to score early?
Padova have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Carrarese in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Carrarese cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Padova.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Carrarese beat Padova 0-2 at Stadio Comunale Euganeo, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Padova 1.17 xG and Carrarese 0.88 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Padova fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Carrarese outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Padova attack 0.90 / defence 0.88 against Carrarese attack 0.84 / defence 0.98, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Padova 41% | Draw 33% | Carrarese 26%, with Padova to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Carrarese win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Padova 40%, Carrarese 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Padova's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Carrarese's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Padova 1.23 PPG, Carrarese 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Carrarese win broke the near-deadlock. Padova (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Carrarese (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.