Cosenza 0-3 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palermo at 34% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cosenza vs Palermo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cosenza host Palermo at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla in Serie B, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 23 February 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cosenza — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cosenza at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across all Serie B games this season, Palermo have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palermo's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Palermo's 1.10 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Cosenza's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Cosenza have won 2, Palermo 0, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Cosenza in-play tendencies (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Palermo in-play tendencies (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 53% versus Palermo 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cosenza 39% | Palermo 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.05 xG and Palermo 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 0.763 / defence 0.970 | Palermo attack 1.005 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.240 / away 1.101. Cosenza's attack strength of 0.763 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 64 Cosenza games / 64 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 33% | Draw 34% | Palermo 34%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 3.03 | Draw 2.94 | Palermo 2.94. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Cosenza dominate the H2H record, yet Palermo are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. This conflicts with form data: Cosenza 50% | Palermo 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Feb 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 33% | Draw 34% | Palermo 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Cosenza 1.05 / Palermo 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 0.763 / def 0.970 | Palermo attack 1.005 / def 1.114 | league avg home 1.240 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Palermo xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Palermo kick off?
Cosenza vs Palermo kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 23 February 2025 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Palermo?
Cosenza 0 - 3 Palermo.
Where is Cosenza vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Palermo part of?
Cosenza vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 33% chance of winning, Palermo a 34% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Cosenza and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Palermo?
Record (5 meetings): Cosenza 2W | Draws 3 | Palermo 0W.
What form are Cosenza and Palermo in?
Cosenza (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Palermo (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cosenza's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Palermo's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. The same calculation in reverse, Palermo's attack versus Cosenza's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
33%
3.06
34%
2.97
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Cosenza xG
Total xG
2.13
1.07
Palermo xG
3.06
33%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
11%
8.94
12%
8.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 12.8 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Cosenza and 1.07 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cosenza come into this having played 64 games, going 16W 24D 24L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Palermo sit at 1.31 PPG from 64 outings (22W 18D 24L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cosenza on 1.12 PPG, Palermo on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cosenza's home form reads 7W 13D 11L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Palermo have taken 1.19 points per game from 31 outings (9W 10D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Cosenza are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.38 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Blended
Palermo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Palermo in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 16W 24D 24L in their last 64 games (1.12 PPG), while Palermo have gone 22W 18D 24L in their last 64 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Palermo away?
Palermo's away record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.10 PPG; Palermo away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cosenza and Palermo runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Feb 2025, when Palermo won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cosenza's record when hosting Palermo specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Cosenza
3
Draws
1
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Palermo?
From 6 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 2, Palermo have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2025, when Cosenza 0-3 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Palermo?
Cosenza have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 26% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 61%, Palermo 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Cosenza) and 48% (Palermo).
On the defensive side: Cosenza have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Palermo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Cosenza's games and 61% of Palermo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cosenza vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Cosenza's recent games and 48% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Palermo tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Palermo in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Palermo run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Cosenza.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo beat Cosenza 0-3 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.05 xG and Palermo 1.07 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Cosenza fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Palermo outscored their 1.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 0.76 / defence 0.97 against Palermo attack 1.00 / defence 1.11, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 33% | Draw 34% | Palermo 34%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 34%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 39%, Palermo 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Palermo's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cosenza 1.12 PPG, Palermo 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palermo win broke the near-deadlock. Cosenza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Palermo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.