Modena 0-0 Como – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Como at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Modena vs Como encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Como make the trip to Stadio Alberto Braglia to face Modena in Serie B, Regular Season - 37. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 May 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Modena's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Modena have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Como (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Como's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Como are 1.70 PPG clear of Modena in recent Serie B fixtures (2.50 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Modena have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Como in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Modena lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2023, ended 1–2 with Como winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Modena half-time and goal-timing data (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Como half-time and goal-timing data (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 57% versus Como 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 45% | Como 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.12 xG and Como 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.884 / defence 1.078 | Como attack 1.221 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.226 / away 1.176. Como have an above-average attack strength of 1.221 — the away xG of 1.55 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 74 Modena games / 74 Como games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 26% | Draw 29% | Como 45%. Fair-value odds: Modena 3.85 | Draw 3.45 | Como 2.22. Como hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Como at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Como if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Modena 60% | Como 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Como | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 26% | Draw 29% | Como 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Modena 1.12 / Como 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 0.884 / def 1.078 | Como attack 1.221 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.226 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Como (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Modena xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Como xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Como kick off?
Modena vs Como kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Como?
Modena 0 - 0 Como.
Where is Modena vs Como being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Como part of?
Modena vs Como is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Como?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 26% chance of winning, Como a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Como the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Como?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Modena and Como will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Como have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Como?
Record (3 meetings): Modena 1W | Draws 0 | Como 2W.
What form are Modena and Como in?
Modena (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Como (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Modena's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Como's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. Flip it around — Como's attack (1.22x) against Modena's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Como Win
26%
3.88
29%
3.47
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Modena xG
Total xG
2.67
1.55
Como xG
3.88
26%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
21%
4.70
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
5%
18.24
15%
6.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.8 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Como?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Modena and Como expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Modena and 1.55 for Como, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Como?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 74 outings, Modena have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 22W 25D 27L record — D-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Como's form line: 31W 25D 18L from 74 games, 1.59 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Modena against 1.59 for Como. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Modena have posted 1.41 PPG from 37 outings (13W 13D 11L).
On the road, Como have gone 11W 14D 12L from 37 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Modena are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Como are on 1.41 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 74 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Current Season
Como
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Como in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 22W 25D 27L in their last 74 games (1.23 PPG), while Como have gone 31W 25D 18L in their last 74 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Como away?
Modena's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.41 PPG; Como away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Modena or Como been keeping clean sheets recently?
Modena have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Como in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Modena won 5-1 on 15 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Modena have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Como — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Modena
1
Draws
2
Como
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Como?
From 4 meetings on record, Modena have won 1, Como have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Como last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2024, when Modena 0-0 Como.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Como?
Como have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 51%, Como 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Modena) and 49% (Como).
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Como in 32%; Modena have failed to score in 27% of games; Como in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Como away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Como?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Modena's recent matches and 51% of Como's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Modena vs Como usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Modena's recent games and 49% of Como's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Como tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Como in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Modena's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Modena and Como finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.12 xG and Como 1.55 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Modena fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Como landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 0.88 / defence 1.08 against Como attack 1.22 / defence 1.03, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 26% | Draw 29% | Como 45%, with Como to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 45%, Como 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Como's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Modena 1.23 PPG, Como 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Modena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Como (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.