Mantova vs Vicenza Virtus – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mantova at 67%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mantova vs Vicenza Virtus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 38 sees Vicenza Virtus travel to Stadio Danilo Martelli to take on Mantova. The game is scheduled for Friday 14 May 2027, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mantova stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Mantova have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Mantova at Stadio Danilo Martelli this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Vicenza Virtus have recorded 1W 1D 1L from 3 outings — 1.33 PPG. Last five: W L D. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 2.33. Conceding 2.33 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Vicenza Virtus have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Mantova carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.57 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.33. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Mantova register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Vicenza Virtus in 67% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Mantova in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
Vicenza Virtus in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mantova 100% and Vicenza Virtus 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Mantova 67% | Vicenza Virtus 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 2.33 xG and Vicenza Virtus 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 1.230 / defence 1.017 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.843 / defence 1.364. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.158. Vicenza Virtus bring a strong defensive rating of 1.364 — this is suppressing Mantova's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Mantova games / 3 Vicenza Virtus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mantova 67% | Draw 18% | Vicenza Virtus 15%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 1.49 | Draw 5.56 | Vicenza Virtus 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Mantova (67%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mantova at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.33 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Mantova 60% | Vicenza Virtus 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mantova vs Vicenza Virtus | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli • Kick-off: Friday 14 May 2027, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mantova 67% | Draw 18% | Vicenza Virtus 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 57% | xG Mantova 2.33 / Vicenza Virtus 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Mantova attack 1.230 / def 1.017 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.843 / def 1.364 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Mantova (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.33
Mantova xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Vicenza Virtus xG
57%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mantova vs Vicenza Virtus kick off?
Mantova vs Vicenza Virtus is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Friday 14 May 2027 at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
Where is Mantova vs Vicenza Virtus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What competition is Mantova vs Vicenza Virtus part of?
Mantova vs Vicenza Virtus is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Mantova vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our statistical model gives Mantova a 67% chance of winning, Vicenza Virtus a 15% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Mantova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mantova vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Mantova and Vicenza Virtus will score (BTTS).
Will Mantova vs Vicenza Virtus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Vicenza Virtus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mantova and Vicenza Virtus in?
Mantova (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 2.33 | L5 W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Mantova's attack rating (1.23) and Vicenza Virtus's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 2.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vicenza Virtus's attack versus Mantova's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mantova Win
67%
1.49
18%
5.50
15%
6.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.33
Mantova xG
Total xG
3.33
0.99
Vicenza Virtus xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.50
18%
Draw
6.88
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
10%
10.32
Win to Nil
25%
4.01
1%
71.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.4 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mantova vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Mantova and Vicenza Virtus expected to score?
The model projects 2.33 expected goals for Mantova and 0.99 for Vicenza Virtus, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Mantova vs Vicenza Virtus?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 3 outings, Mantova have picked up 2.33 PPG on a 2W 1D 0L record — W-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Mantova, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Vicenza Virtus's form line: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Mantova are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vicenza Virtus.
Goals in Recent Form
Mantova are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Vicenza Virtus are on 1.67 scored and 2.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mantova have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Vicenza Virtus in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mantova
Early Season
Vicenza Virtus
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mantova and Vicenza Virtus in coming into this match?
Mantova have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 games (2.33 PPG), while Vicenza Virtus have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Mantova at 100%, Vicenza Virtus at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Mantova and 100% for Vicenza Virtus. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vicenza Virtus in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mantova home games / Vicenza Virtus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mantova play Vicenza Virtus?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Mantova's games and 67% of Vicenza Virtus's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mantova vs Vicenza Virtus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Mantova's matches and 100% of Vicenza Virtus's.
Do Mantova and Vicenza Virtus tend to score early?
Mantova have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Vicenza Virtus in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.