Mantova 1-1 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mantova vs Sudtirol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mantova host Sudtirol at Stadio Danilo Martelli in Serie B, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 October 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Mantova have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Mantova have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Mantova have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Mantova are significantly better at Stadio Danilo Martelli than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sudtirol stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Sudtirol have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sudtirol's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Sudtirol's 1.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Mantova's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Mantova register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sudtirol in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Mantova have won 1, Sudtirol 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2025, ended 2–0 with Mantova winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Mantova trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Sudtirol trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mantova 58% and Sudtirol 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mantova 53% | Sudtirol 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 1.32 xG and Sudtirol 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 0.991 / defence 1.509 | Sudtirol attack 1.083 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.111. Data: 45 Mantova games / 45 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mantova 25% | Draw 29% | Sudtirol 46%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 4.00 | Draw 3.45 | Sudtirol 2.17. Sudtirol hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.32 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sudtirol at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sudtirol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.14 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Mantova 60% | Sudtirol 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mantova vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Oct 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mantova 25% | Draw 29% | Sudtirol 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 65% | xG Mantova 1.32 / Sudtirol 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Mantova attack 0.991 / def 1.509 | Sudtirol attack 1.083 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Mantova xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Sudtirol xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mantova vs Sudtirol kick off?
Mantova vs Sudtirol kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 18 October 2025 at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What was the final score in Mantova vs Sudtirol?
Mantova 1 - 1 Sudtirol.
Where is Mantova vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What competition is Mantova vs Sudtirol part of?
Mantova vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Mantova vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Mantova a 25% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 46% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mantova vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Mantova and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Mantova vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Sudtirol?
Record (2 meetings): Mantova 1W | Draws 1 | Sudtirol 0W.
What form are Mantova and Sudtirol in?
Mantova (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Sudtirol (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Mantova's attack at 0.99x the league average against Sudtirol's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sudtirol's attack versus Mantova's defence, projects 1.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
25%
4.02
29%
3.43
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Mantova xG
Total xG
3.14
1.82
Sudtirol xG
4.02
25%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
16%
6.15
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
4%
24.74
12%
8.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.9 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.4 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mantova vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Mantova and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Mantova and 1.82 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Mantova vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mantova's recent record stands at 11W 15D 19L from 45 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Mantova, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sudtirol, meanwhile, have gone 14W 13D 18L across 45 games — 1.22 PPG, with L-D-W-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sudtirol, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mantova on 1.07 PPG, Sudtirol on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Mantova have managed 9W 7D 6L from 22 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.07 PPG overall — Mantova are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sudtirol's away record stands at 6W 6D 10L across 22 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mantova come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Mantova are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.36 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sudtirol in 62%.
Last 45 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mantova
Early Season
Sudtirol
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mantova and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Mantova have gone 11W 15D 19L in their last 45 games (1.07 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 14W 13D 18L in their last 45 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mantova at home or Sudtirol away?
Mantova's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mantova at home: 1.55 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mantova and Sudtirol runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Apr 2026, when Mantova won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mantova's record when hosting Sudtirol specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Mantova
2
Draws
0
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Sudtirol?
From 4 meetings on record, Mantova have won 2, Sudtirol have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mantova and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Sudtirol 0-3 Mantova.
Who has won more matches between Mantova and Sudtirol?
Mantova have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mantova see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mantova 50%, Sudtirol 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Mantova) and 54% (Sudtirol).
On the defensive side: Mantova keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Mantova have failed to score in 27% of games; Sudtirol in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mantova home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mantova play Sudtirol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Mantova's recent matches and 50% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mantova vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Mantova's recent games and 54% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mantova and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Mantova have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mantova and Sudtirol share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mantova and Sudtirol finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.32 xG and Sudtirol 1.82 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Sudtirol landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 0.99 / defence 1.51 against Sudtirol attack 1.08 / defence 0.98, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mantova 25% | Draw 29% | Sudtirol 46%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 53%, Sudtirol 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mantova's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Sudtirol's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mantova 1.07 PPG, Sudtirol 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.