Mantova vs Cesena – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Mantova at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mantova vs Cesena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mantova and Cesena meet at Stadio Danilo Martelli in Serie B, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 February 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Mantova (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mantova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Mantova have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Cesena have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cesena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cesena's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Mantova have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Cesena in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Mantova 2W, Cesena 2W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Sep 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Mantova — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Cesena — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mantova 51% versus Cesena 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mantova 49% | Cesena 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 1.23 xG and Cesena 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 0.822 / defence 1.011 | Cesena attack 0.797 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.203. Data: 49 Mantova games / 49 Cesena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mantova 40% | Draw 33% | Cesena 27%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 2.50 | Draw 3.03 | Cesena 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mantova are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mantova if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Mantova 30% | Cesena 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mantova vs Cesena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mantova 40% | Draw 33% | Cesena 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Mantova 1.23 / Cesena 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Mantova attack 0.822 / def 1.011 | Cesena attack 0.797 / def 1.167 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Mantova (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Mantova xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Cesena xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mantova vs Cesena kick off?
Mantova vs Cesena is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 27 February 2027 at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
Where is Mantova vs Cesena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What competition is Mantova vs Cesena part of?
Mantova vs Cesena is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Mantova vs Cesena?
Our statistical model gives Mantova a 40% chance of winning, Cesena a 27% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Mantova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mantova vs Cesena?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Mantova and Cesena will score (BTTS).
Will Mantova vs Cesena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Cesena?
Record (5 meetings): Mantova 2W | Draws 1 | Cesena 2W.
What form are Mantova and Cesena in?
Mantova (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Cesena (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Mantova's attack at 0.82x the league average against Cesena's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cesena's attack (0.80x) against Mantova's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mantova Win
40%
2.49
33%
3.02
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Mantova xG
Total xG
2.20
0.97
Cesena xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
15%
6.57
8%
12.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 10.7 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.2 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mantova vs Cesena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Mantova and Cesena expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Mantova and 0.97 for Cesena, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Mantova vs Cesena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 49 outings, Mantova have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 18W 11D 20L record — L-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Mantova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cesena's form line: 15W 16D 18L from 49 games, 1.24 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-W. The sample for Cesena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Mantova against 1.24 for Cesena. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Mantova have posted 1.46 PPG from 24 outings (10W 5D 9L).
On the road, Cesena have gone 7W 6D 11L from 24 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mantova are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Cesena are on 1.16 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cesena in 63%.
Last 49 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mantova
Blended
Cesena
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mantova and Cesena in coming into this match?
Mantova have gone 18W 11D 20L in their last 49 games (1.33 PPG), while Cesena have gone 15W 16D 18L in their last 49 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mantova at home or Cesena away?
Mantova's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mantova at home: 1.46 PPG; Cesena away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mantova won 3-0 on 1 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mantova have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cesena — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Mantova
1
Draws
2
Cesena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Cesena?
From 5 meetings on record, Mantova have won 2, Cesena have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mantova and Cesena last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when Cesena 1-1 Mantova.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Cesena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mantova 54%, Cesena 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Mantova) and 46% (Cesena).
On the defensive side: Cesena in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mantova home games / Cesena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mantova play Cesena?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Mantova's recent matches and 54% of Cesena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mantova vs Cesena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Mantova's recent games and 46% of Cesena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mantova and Cesena tend to score early?
Mantova have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Cesena in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
More Italian football predictions →