Mantova 0-1 Bari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bari at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mantova vs Bari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 27 as Mantova welcome Bari to Stadio Danilo Martelli. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 February 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Mantova — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W D L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Mantova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mantova's home record at Stadio Danilo Martelli: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bari stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bari away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Mantova) versus 1.00 (Bari). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Mantova, 1 for Bari and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2024, ended 0–2 with Bari winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Mantova in-play and half-time data (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Bari in-play and half-time data (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mantova 58% versus Bari 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mantova 50% | Bari 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 1.01 xG and Bari 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 0.839 / defence 1.300 | Bari attack 0.814 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.246 / away 1.078. Data: 26 Mantova games / 64 Bari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mantova 30% | Draw 34% | Bari 36%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 3.33 | Draw 2.94 | Bari 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bari at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mantova 40% | Bari 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mantova vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Feb 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mantova 30% | Draw 34% | Bari 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 46% | xG Mantova 1.01 / Bari 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Mantova attack 0.839 / def 1.300 | Bari attack 0.814 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.246 / away 1.078 • Poisson stance: Bari (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Mantova xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Bari xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mantova vs Bari kick off?
Mantova vs Bari kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 22 February 2025 at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What was the final score in Mantova vs Bari?
Mantova 0 - 1 Bari.
Where is Mantova vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What competition is Mantova vs Bari part of?
Mantova vs Bari is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Mantova vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Mantova a 30% chance of winning, Bari a 36% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Bari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mantova vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Mantova and Bari will score (BTTS).
Will Mantova vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Bari?
Record (1 meetings): Mantova 0W | Draws 0 | Bari 1W.
What form are Mantova and Bari in?
Mantova (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Bari (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Mantova's attack rating (0.84) and Bari's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bari's attack versus Mantova's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
30%
3.37
34%
2.94
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Mantova xG
Total xG
2.15
1.14
Bari xG
3.37
30%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
9%
10.53
13%
7.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mantova vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Mantova and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Mantova and 1.14 for Bari, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Mantova vs Bari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mantova's recent record stands at 6W 11D 9L from 26 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Mantova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bari, meanwhile, have gone 7W 13D 6L across 26 games — 1.31 PPG, with D-D-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Bari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mantova on 1.12 PPG, Bari on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Mantova have managed 5W 4D 3L from 12 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Mantova are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Bari's away record stands at 2W 6D 4L across 12 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mantova come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mantova are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 1.12 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mantova
Blended
Bari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mantova and Bari in coming into this match?
Mantova have gone 6W 11D 9L in their last 26 games (1.12 PPG), while Bari have gone 7W 13D 6L in their last 26 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mantova at home or Bari away?
Mantova's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mantova at home: 1.58 PPG; Bari away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Mantova or Bari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mantova have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Bari in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Mantova's record when hosting Bari specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Mantova
0
Draws
3
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Bari?
From 4 meetings on record, Mantova have won 1, Bari have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mantova and Bari last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Mantova 2-1 Bari.
Who has won more matches between Mantova and Bari?
Bari have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mantova see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mantova 42%, Bari 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 42% for Mantova and 25% for Bari.
On the defensive side: Mantova keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Bari in 42%; Mantova have failed to score in 33% of games; Bari in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mantova home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mantova play Bari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Mantova's recent matches and 42% of Bari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mantova vs Bari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Mantova's recent games and 25% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mantova and Bari tend to score early?
Mantova have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Bari in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bari edge out Mantova 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bari beat Mantova 0-1 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.01 xG and Bari 1.14 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Mantova fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 0.84 / defence 1.30 against Bari attack 0.81 / defence 0.97, drawn from 26/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mantova 30% | Draw 34% | Bari 36%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 50%, Bari 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mantova's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bari's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mantova 1.12 PPG, Bari 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bari win broke the near-deadlock. Mantova (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Bari (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.