Juve Stabia 0-0 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juve Stabia at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juve Stabia vs Venezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Romeo Menti plays host to Juve Stabia versus Venezia in Serie B, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Saturday 30 August 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Juve Stabia have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Juve Stabia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Juve Stabia's home record at Stadio Romeo Menti: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Serie B appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Romeo Menti. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Juve Stabia are significantly better at Stadio Romeo Menti than their overall form suggests.
Venezia (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Venezia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Venezia's away record: 0W 6D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Juve Stabia, 1.20 for Venezia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Juve Stabia half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Venezia half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 54% versus Venezia 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 49% | Venezia 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.53 xG and Venezia 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 1.013 / defence 0.921 | Venezia attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.129. Data: 39 Juve Stabia games / 1 Venezia games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 51% | Draw 29% | Venezia 20%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | Venezia 5.00. Juve Stabia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Juve Stabia at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juve Stabia if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Juve Stabia 40% | Venezia 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Venezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Aug 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 51% | Draw 29% | Venezia 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Juve Stabia 1.53 / Venezia 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 1.013 / def 0.921 | Venezia attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Juve Stabia (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Venezia xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juve Stabia vs Venezia kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Venezia kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 30 August 2025 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Juve Stabia vs Venezia?
Juve Stabia 0 - 0 Venezia.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Venezia part of?
Juve Stabia vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 51% chance of winning, Venezia a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Juve Stabia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Juve Stabia and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Juve Stabia vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Venezia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Juve Stabia and Venezia in?
Juve Stabia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Venezia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Juve Stabia's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Venezia's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. Flip it around — Venezia's attack (0.85x) against Juve Stabia's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
The sample (39/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
51%
1.97
29%
3.42
20%
4.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
2.41
0.88
Venezia xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
4.99
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
21%
4.76
4%
23.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.1 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 0.88 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Juve Stabia come into this having played 39 games, going 14W 13D 12L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Juve Stabia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Venezia sit at 0.82 PPG from 39 outings (6W 14D 19L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Venezia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Juve Stabia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Venezia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Juve Stabia's home form reads 11W 4D 4L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.95 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.41 PPG overall — Juve Stabia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Venezia have taken 0.47 points per game from 19 outings (0W 9D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juve Stabia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 0.87 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Early Season
Venezia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juve Stabia and Venezia in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 14W 13D 12L in their last 39 games (1.41 PPG), while Venezia have gone 6W 14D 19L in their last 39 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juve Stabia at home or Venezia away?
Juve Stabia's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juve Stabia at home: 1.95 PPG; Venezia away: 0.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Juve Stabia
1
Draws
1
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Venezia?
From 2 meetings on record, Juve Stabia have won 0, Venezia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Juve Stabia and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Venezia 3-1 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Juve Stabia and Venezia?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Venezia see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juve Stabia 47%, Venezia 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Juve Stabia) and 53% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Venezia in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juve Stabia play Venezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Juve Stabia's recent matches and 58% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juve Stabia vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Juve Stabia's recent games and 53% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juve Stabia and Venezia tend to score early?
Juve Stabia have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Venezia in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Juve Stabia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juve Stabia and Venezia finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.53 xG and Venezia 0.88 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Juve Stabia fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Venezia landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 1.01 / defence 0.92 against Venezia attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 39/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 51% | Draw 29% | Venezia 20%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 49%, Venezia 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juve Stabia's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Venezia's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Juve Stabia arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. Venezia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.