Juve Stabia 2-1 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juve Stabia at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juve Stabia vs Modena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti plays host to Juve Stabia versus Modena in Serie B, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Saturday 15 March 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Juve Stabia (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Juve Stabia's home record at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Juve Stabia are significantly better at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti than their overall form suggests.
Modena have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Modena have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Juve Stabia, 1.10 for Modena — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Juve Stabia 0W, Modena 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2024, ended 0–3 with Modena winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Juve Stabia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Modena goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 55% versus Modena 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 52% | Modena 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.32 xG and Modena 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 1.054 / defence 1.017 | Modena attack 0.883 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.213 / away 1.101. Data: 29 Juve Stabia games / 67 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 42% | Draw 31% | Modena 26%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Modena 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Juve Stabia are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juve Stabia if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Juve Stabia 50% | Modena 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Mar 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 42% | Draw 31% | Modena 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Juve Stabia 1.32 / Modena 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 1.054 / def 1.017 | Modena attack 0.883 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.213 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Juve Stabia (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Modena xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juve Stabia vs Modena kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Modena kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 15 March 2025 at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Juve Stabia vs Modena?
Juve Stabia 2 - 1 Modena.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Modena part of?
Juve Stabia vs Modena is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 42% chance of winning, Modena a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Juve Stabia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Juve Stabia and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Juve Stabia vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Modena?
Record (1 meetings): Juve Stabia 0W | Draws 0 | Modena 1W.
What form are Juve Stabia and Modena in?
Juve Stabia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Modena (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Juve Stabia's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Modena's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. Flip it around — Modena's attack (0.88x) against Juve Stabia's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 29/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
42%
2.37
31%
3.18
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
2.31
0.99
Modena xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
16%
6.36
7%
14.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.0 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 0.99 for Modena, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Juve Stabia's recent record stands at 10W 10D 9L from 29 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-D in the last five.
Modena, meanwhile, have gone 7W 14D 8L across 29 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-D-W-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Juve Stabia against 1.21 for Modena. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Juve Stabia have managed 7W 3D 4L from 14 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Modena's away record stands at 2W 7D 5L across 14 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juve Stabia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.21 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Current Season
Modena
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juve Stabia and Modena in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 10W 10D 9L in their last 29 games (1.38 PPG), while Modena have gone 7W 14D 8L in their last 29 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juve Stabia at home or Modena away?
Juve Stabia's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juve Stabia at home: 1.71 PPG; Modena away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Modena won 3-0 on 21 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juve Stabia have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Modena — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Juve Stabia
0
Draws
3
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Modena?
From 5 meetings on record, Juve Stabia have won 2, Modena have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Juve Stabia and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Modena 0-1 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Juve Stabia and Modena?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juve Stabia 50%, Modena 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Juve Stabia) and 29% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Modena in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juve Stabia play Modena?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Juve Stabia's recent matches and 43% of Modena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juve Stabia vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Juve Stabia's recent games and 29% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juve Stabia and Modena tend to score early?
Juve Stabia have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Modena in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Juve Stabia edge out Modena 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juve Stabia beat Modena 2-1 at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.32 xG and Modena 0.99 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 1.05 / defence 1.02 against Modena attack 0.88 / defence 1.03, drawn from 29/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 42% | Draw 31% | Modena 26%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 52%, Modena 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juve Stabia's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Modena's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juve Stabia 1.38 PPG, Modena 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juve Stabia win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.