Juve Stabia 0-1 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Frosinone at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Juve Stabia vs Frosinone encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Juve Stabia host Frosinone at Stadio Romeo Menti in Serie B (matchday 37). Kick-off is Friday 1 May 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Juve Stabia have gone 2W 6D 2L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Juve Stabia's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 5D 1L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Juve Stabia are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Frosinone stand at 6W 4D 0L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Frosinone's form when playing away from home: 5W 5D 0L across their last 10 road games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Frosinone — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Juve Stabia's last 10 home games and Frosinone's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Juve Stabia, 1 for Frosinone and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.7 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 8 Dec 2025, ended Juve Stabia 0–3 Frosinone — a Frosinone win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Juve Stabia in-play and half-time data (last 74 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Frosinone in-play and half-time data (last 74 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 29 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 54% versus Frosinone 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 47% | Frosinone 51%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Juve Stabia surrender their half-time lead 28% of the time, while Frosinone have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 44% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.25 xG and Frosinone 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 0.997 / defence 0.956 | Frosinone attack 1.424 / defence 0.913. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.084. Frosinone have an above-average attack rating of 1.424, which lifts their away xG to 1.48. Data: built from Juve Stabia's last 74 games and Frosinone's last 74.
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 30% | Draw 30% | Frosinone 40%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 3.35 | Draw 3.33 | Frosinone 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Frosinone at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Frosinone offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Juve Stabia's last 10 home games and Frosinone's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Juve Stabia 70% (last 10 home games) | Frosinone 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie B, matchday 37 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Friday 1 May 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 30% | Draw 30% | Frosinone 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Juve Stabia 1.25 / Frosinone 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 0.997 / def 0.956 | Frosinone attack 1.424 / def 0.913 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Frosinone xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Juve Stabia vs Frosinone FAQs
What time does Juve Stabia vs Frosinone kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Frosinone kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Friday 1 May 2026 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Juve Stabia vs Frosinone?
Juve Stabia 0 - 1 Frosinone.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Frosinone part of?
Juve Stabia vs Frosinone is a Serie B fixture (matchday 37) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 30% chance of winning, Frosinone a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Juve Stabia and Frosinone will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Juve Stabia vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Juve Stabia's attack rating (1.00) and Frosinone's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Frosinone's attack versus Juve Stabia's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Juve Stabia's last 74 games and Frosinone's last 74 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
30%
3.35
30%
3.33
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
2.73
1.48
Frosinone xG
3.35
30%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
23%
4.37
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
7%
14.63
11%
8.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.6 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.1 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.6 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Juve Stabia vs Frosinone Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 1.48 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Juve Stabia come into this having played 74 games, going 25W 29D 20L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-D.
On the other side, Frosinone sit at 1.59 PPG from 74 outings (30W 28D 16L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Juve Stabia on 1.41 PPG, Frosinone on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Juve Stabia's home form reads 19W 13D 5L across their last 37 home games, a 1.89 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.41 PPG overall — Juve Stabia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Frosinone have taken 1.57 points per game from their last 37 away games (15W 13D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.45 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 74 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Current Season
Frosinone
Current Season
Juve Stabia (Home) vs Frosinone (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Juve Stabia
Current Season
Frosinone
Current Season
❓ Juve Stabia vs Frosinone Form FAQs
What form are Juve Stabia and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 25W 29D 20L in their last 74 games (1.41 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 30W 28D 16L in their last 74 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juve Stabia at home or Frosinone away?
Juve Stabia's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juve Stabia at home: 1.89 PPG; Frosinone away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2024. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 1 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Frosinone have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 8 Dec 2025, when Frosinone won Frosinone 3-0 Juve Stabia.
Juve Stabia's record when hosting Frosinone specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Juve Stabia
2
Draws
2
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Juve Stabia vs Frosinone H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Frosinone?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Juve Stabia have won 0, Frosinone have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Juve Stabia and Frosinone last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 May 2026: Juve Stabia 0-1 Frosinone.
Who has won more matches between Juve Stabia and Frosinone?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 51% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juve Stabia 49%, Frosinone 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Juve Stabia) and 43% (Frosinone).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Juve Stabia vs Frosinone Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Juve Stabia and Frosinone matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Juve Stabia's recent matches and 57% of Frosinone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Juve Stabia and Frosinone matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Juve Stabia's recent games and 43% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juve Stabia and Frosinone matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Juve Stabia's recent matches and 76% of Frosinone's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Frosinone edge out Juve Stabia 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone beat Juve Stabia 0-1 at Stadio Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.25 xG and Frosinone 1.48 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Juve Stabia fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 1.00 / defence 0.96 against Frosinone attack 1.42 / defence 0.91, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 30% | Draw 30% | Frosinone 40%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 47%, Frosinone 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juve Stabia's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Frosinone's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juve Stabia 1.41 PPG, Frosinone 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Frosinone win broke the near-deadlock. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Frosinone (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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