Genoa 1-0 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Genoa at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genoa vs Modena encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Genoa and Modena meet at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Serie B, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 September 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Current Form
Genoa's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Genoa have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Genoa have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
Modena (all games): 1W 0D 4L across 5 Serie B outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Modena have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Genoa. A 0.80 PPG lead over Modena (1.40 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Genoa half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Modena half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 40% versus Modena 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 40% | Modena 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.56 xG and Modena 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 1.016 / defence 1.202 | Modena attack 0.740 / defence 1.204. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.084. Modena bring a strong defensive rating of 1.204 — this is suppressing Genoa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Genoa games / 5 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 51% | Draw 25% | Modena 23%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Modena 4.35. Genoa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Genoa at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genoa if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Genoa 40% | Modena 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 51% | Draw 25% | Modena 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Genoa 1.56 / Modena 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 1.016 / def 1.202 | Modena attack 0.740 / def 1.204 | league avg home 1.271 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Genoa (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Modena xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Modena kick off?
Genoa vs Modena kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Modena?
Genoa 1 - 0 Modena.
Where is Genoa vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Modena part of?
Genoa vs Modena is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 51% chance of winning, Modena a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Genoa and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Modena?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Genoa and Modena in?
Genoa (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Modena (all comps): 1W-0D-4L in 5 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Genoa's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Modena's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. Flip it around — Modena's attack (0.74x) against Genoa's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
51%
1.96
25%
3.93
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.52
0.96
Modena xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
19%
5.13
5%
20.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.1 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Genoa and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Genoa and 0.96 for Modena, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Genoa come into this having played 5 games, going 2W 2D 1L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Genoa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Modena sit at 0.60 PPG from 5 outings (1W 0D 4L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Modena, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Genoa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Modena — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Genoa are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Modena in 60%.
Defensively: Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Early Season
Modena
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Modena in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 games (1.60 PPG), while Modena have gone 1W 0D 4L in their last 5 (0.60 PPG).
Have Genoa or Modena been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Modena in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Genoa
1
Draws
0
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Modena?
From 2 meetings on record, Genoa have won 1, Modena have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2023, when Modena 2-2 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Modena?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 40%, Modena 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Genoa) and 60% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Genoa keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Genoa have failed to score in 40% of games; Modena in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Modena?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Genoa's recent matches and 60% of Modena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Genoa's recent games and 60% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Modena tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Modena in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Genoa edge out Modena 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa beat Modena 1-0 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.56 xG and Modena 0.96 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Modena landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 1.02 / defence 1.20 against Modena attack 0.74 / defence 1.20, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 51% | Draw 25% | Modena 23%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 40%, Modena 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Modena's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Genoa arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.60. Form held, and they took the win. Genoa conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Modena managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.