Frosinone 0-0 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pisa at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Frosinone vs Pisa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Frosinone host Pisa at Stadio Benito Stirpe in Serie B, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 27 October 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Frosinone have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Frosinone have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pisa stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Pisa have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Pisa — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Frosinone, 1 for Pisa and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2023, ended 3–1 with Frosinone winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Frosinone trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Pisa trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Frosinone 60% and Pisa 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 60% | Pisa 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 0.90 xG and Pisa 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 0.617 / defence 1.193 | Pisa attack 1.046 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.158. Frosinone's attack strength of 0.617 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 Frosinone games / 47 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Frosinone 21% | Draw 31% | Pisa 48%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 4.76 | Draw 3.23 | Pisa 2.08. Pisa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pisa at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Frosinone 30% | Pisa 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 21% | Draw 31% | Pisa 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Frosinone 0.90 / Pisa 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 0.617 / def 1.193 | Pisa attack 1.046 / def 1.143 | league avg home 1.281 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Pisa (48%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Pisa xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Frosinone vs Pisa kick off?
Frosinone vs Pisa kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Frosinone vs Pisa?
Frosinone 0 - 0 Pisa.
Where is Frosinone vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Pisa part of?
Frosinone vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 21% chance of winning, Pisa a 48% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Frosinone and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Frosinone vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Pisa?
Record (4 meetings): Frosinone 2W | Draws 1 | Pisa 1W.
What form are Frosinone and Pisa in?
Frosinone (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Pisa (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Frosinone vs Pisa?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Frosinone's attacking strength (0.62x league average) is weighed against Pisa's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Frosinone's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.2%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
21%
4.67
31%
3.23
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Frosinone xG
Total xG
2.35
1.45
Pisa xG
4.67
21%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
24%
4.24
41%
2.47
Win to Nil
5%
19.81
19%
5.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 13.8 | 10.0 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Frosinone and 1.45 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Frosinone come into this having played 47 games, going 9W 14D 24L for 0.87 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Frosinone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pisa sit at 1.40 PPG from 47 outings (17W 15D 15L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pisa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Frosinone — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Frosinone's home form reads 7W 7D 9L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Pisa have taken 1.17 points per game from 23 outings (7W 6D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Frosinone are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.45 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pisa in 72%.
Last 47 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Frosinone and Pisa in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 9W 14D 24L in their last 47 games (0.87 PPG), while Pisa have gone 17W 15D 15L in their last 47 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Frosinone at home or Pisa away?
Frosinone's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Frosinone at home: 1.22 PPG; Pisa away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Frosinone and Pisa runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Frosinone's record when hosting Pisa specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Frosinone
2
Draws
2
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Pisa?
From 6 meetings on record, Frosinone have won 2, Pisa have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2025, when Pisa 1-0 Frosinone.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Frosinone 61%, Pisa 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Frosinone) and 48% (Pisa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Frosinone have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Frosinone play Pisa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Frosinone's games and 65% of Pisa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Frosinone vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Frosinone's matches and 48% of Pisa's.
Do Frosinone and Pisa tend to score early?
Frosinone have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Pisa in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Frosinone's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 10, as Frosinone and Pisa drew 0-0 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 0.90 xG and Pisa 1.45 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Frosinone fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Pisa landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 0.62 / defence 1.19 against Pisa attack 1.05 / defence 1.14, drawn from 9/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Frosinone 21% | Draw 31% | Pisa 48%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 60%, Pisa 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Frosinone's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pisa's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Frosinone (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.