Cremonese 2-1 Salernitana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cremonese at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cremonese vs Salernitana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Giovanni Zini plays host to Cremonese versus Salernitana in Serie B, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 26 October 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cremonese have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Cremonese have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Salernitana's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Salernitana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Salernitana have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Cremonese, 1.20 for Salernitana — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cremonese lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Jun 2023, ended 2–0 with Cremonese winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Cremonese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Salernitana goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 51% versus Salernitana 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 53% | Salernitana 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.14 xG and Salernitana 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.924 / defence 0.874 | Salernitana attack 0.741 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.243 / away 1.204. Data: 47 Cremonese games / 9 Salernitana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 42% | Draw 35% | Salernitana 23%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.38 | Draw 2.86 | Salernitana 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cremonese as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cremonese if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.92 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cremonese 50% | Salernitana 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Salernitana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 42% | Draw 35% | Salernitana 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 39% | xG Cremonese 1.14 / Salernitana 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.924 / def 0.874 | Salernitana attack 0.741 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.243 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Salernitana xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Salernitana kick off?
Cremonese vs Salernitana kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Salernitana?
Cremonese 2 - 1 Salernitana.
Where is Cremonese vs Salernitana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Salernitana part of?
Cremonese vs Salernitana is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Salernitana?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 42% chance of winning, Salernitana a 23% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Salernitana?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Cremonese and Salernitana will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Salernitana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Salernitana?
Record (2 meetings): Cremonese 1W | Draws 1 | Salernitana 0W.
What form are Cremonese and Salernitana in?
Cremonese (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Salernitana (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Cremonese vs Salernitana?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cremonese's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Salernitana's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — Salernitana's attack (0.74x) against Cremonese's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 47/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
42%
2.39
35%
2.83
23%
4.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Cremonese xG
Total xG
1.92
0.78
Salernitana xG
2.39
42%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
4.38
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
19%
5.22
7%
13.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 11.5 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 13.0 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.5 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Salernitana?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Salernitana expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Cremonese and 0.78 for Salernitana, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Salernitana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cremonese's recent record stands at 23W 12D 12L from 47 games, a 1.72 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Salernitana, meanwhile, have gone 5W 13D 29L across 47 games — 0.60 PPG, with L-D-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Salernitana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cremonese by 1.12 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Salernitana heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Cremonese have managed 11W 6D 5L from 22 games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Salernitana's away record stands at 2W 6D 14L across 22 trips, a 0.55 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cremonese are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Salernitana are on 0.89 scored and 1.98 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Blended
Salernitana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Salernitana in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 23W 12D 12L in their last 47 games (1.72 PPG), while Salernitana have gone 5W 13D 29L in their last 47 (0.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Salernitana away?
Cremonese's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.77 PPG; Salernitana away: 0.55 PPG.
Have Cremonese or Salernitana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Salernitana in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cremonese have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Salernitana — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Cremonese
1
Draws
1
Salernitana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Salernitana?
From 4 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 2, Salernitana have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Salernitana last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2025, when Salernitana 1-0 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Salernitana?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cremonese see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 46%, Salernitana 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Cremonese) and 54% (Salernitana).
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Salernitana in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Salernitana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Salernitana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Cremonese's recent matches and 41% of Salernitana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Salernitana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Cremonese's recent games and 54% of Salernitana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Salernitana tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Salernitana in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cremonese edge out Salernitana 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Salernitana 2-1 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.14 xG and Salernitana 0.78 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Cremonese beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.92 / defence 0.87 against Salernitana attack 0.74 / defence 0.99, drawn from 47/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 42% | Draw 35% | Salernitana 23%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 53%, Salernitana 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Salernitana's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 0.60. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.