Empoli 2-2 Carrarese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Carrarese at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Empoli vs Carrarese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Empoli and Carrarese meet at Stadio Carlo Castellani in Serie B, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 28 September 2025 at 18:30 UTC.
Current Form
Empoli's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Empoli have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Empoli's home record at Stadio Carlo Castellani: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Carrarese have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Carrarese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Carrarese have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Empoli, 1.30 for Carrarese — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Empoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Carrarese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 57% versus Carrarese 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 50% | Carrarese 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.19 xG and Carrarese 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 1.041 / defence 1.139 | Carrarese attack 0.988 / defence 0.884. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.145. Data: 4 Empoli games / 42 Carrarese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 30% | Draw 35% | Carrarese 35%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 3.33 | Draw 2.86 | Carrarese 2.86. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Empoli 50% | Carrarese 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Sep 2025, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 30% | Draw 35% | Carrarese 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 54% | xG Empoli 1.19 / Carrarese 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 1.041 / def 1.139 | Carrarese attack 0.988 / def 0.884 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Carrarese xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Carrarese kick off?
Empoli vs Carrarese kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 28 September 2025 at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Carrarese?
Empoli 2 - 2 Carrarese.
Where is Empoli vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What competition is Empoli vs Carrarese part of?
Empoli vs Carrarese is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 30% chance of winning, Carrarese a 35% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Empoli and Carrarese will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Carrarese?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Empoli and Carrarese in?
Empoli (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Carrarese (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Empoli's attack rating (1.04) and Carrarese's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Carrarese's attack (0.99x) against Empoli's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 4/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Carrarese Win
30%
3.30
35%
2.88
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.48
1.29
Carrarese xG
3.30
30%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
8%
11.98
11%
9.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.8 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.8 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.7 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Empoli and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Empoli and 1.29 for Carrarese, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Carrarese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Empoli come into this having played 42 games, going 7W 14D 21L for 0.83 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Empoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Carrarese sit at 1.19 PPG from 42 outings (12W 14D 16L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Carrarese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.83 PPG for Empoli against 1.19 for Carrarese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Empoli's home form reads 3W 8D 10L across 21 games on their own ground, a 0.81 PPG return.
Away from home, Carrarese have taken 0.67 points per game from 21 outings (2W 8D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Carrarese's season.
Attack vs Defence
Empoli are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 1.07 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Carrarese in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Early Season
Carrarese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 7W 14D 21L in their last 42 games (0.83 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 12W 14D 16L in their last 42 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Carrarese away?
Empoli's home record (0.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 0.81 PPG; Carrarese away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Empoli or Carrarese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Empoli have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Carrarese in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Carrarese won 3-0 on 23 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Empoli
1
Draws
1
Carrarese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Carrarese?
From 3 meetings on record, Empoli have won 1, Carrarese have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Carrarese last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Carrarese 0-1 Empoli.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Empoli see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Carrarese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 43%, Carrarese 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Empoli) and 43% (Carrarese).
On the defensive side: Empoli have failed to score in 52% of games; Carrarese in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Carrarese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Empoli's recent matches and 57% of Carrarese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Empoli vs Carrarese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Empoli's recent games and 43% of Carrarese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Empoli and Carrarese tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Carrarese in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Empoli and Carrarese share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Regular Season - 5, as Empoli and Carrarese drew 2-2 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.19 xG and Carrarese 1.29 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Empoli beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 1.04 / defence 1.14 against Carrarese attack 0.99 / defence 0.88, drawn from 4/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 30% | Draw 35% | Carrarese 35%, with Carrarese to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 50%, Carrarese 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Carrarese's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Empoli 0.83 PPG, Carrarese 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Empoli (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm. Carrarese (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.