Cremonese 1-2 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Parma at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cremonese vs Parma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 8 as Cremonese welcome Parma to Stadio Giovanni Zini. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 October 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Cremonese have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W D D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Cremonese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cremonese's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Giovanni Zini this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Parma — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Parma have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Parma away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Parma — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Cremonese, 0 for Parma and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Feb 2022, ended 3–1 with Cremonese winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Cremonese trading profile (45 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Parma trading profile (45 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 56% versus Parma 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 47% | Parma 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 0.74 xG and Parma 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.780 / defence 1.088 | Parma attack 1.417 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.093 / away 1.174. Cremonese's attack strength of 0.780 is below the league average — the 0.74 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Parma have an above-average attack strength of 1.417 — the away xG of 1.81 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 7 Cremonese games / 45 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 12% | Draw 28% | Parma 60%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 8.33 | Draw 3.57 | Parma 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Parma (60%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Parma as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Cremonese 50% | Parma 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Parma | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Oct 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 12% | Draw 28% | Parma 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 47% | xG Cremonese 0.74 / Parma 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.780 / def 1.088 | Parma attack 1.417 / def 0.871 | league avg home 1.093 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Parma (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Parma xG
47%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Parma kick off?
Cremonese vs Parma kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 1 October 2023 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Parma?
Cremonese 1 - 2 Parma.
Where is Cremonese vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Parma part of?
Cremonese vs Parma is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 12% chance of winning, Parma a 60% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Cremonese and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Parma?
Record (2 meetings): Cremonese 2W | Draws 0 | Parma 0W.
What form are Cremonese and Parma in?
Cremonese (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-D-W. Parma (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cremonese's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Parma's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.74. The same calculation in reverse, Parma's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 1.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 12.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.7%), 1-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
12%
8.49
28%
3.52
60%
1.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.8%
Away win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.55
1.81
Parma xG
8.49
12%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
1.67
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
16%
6.10
48%
2.10
Win to Nil
2%
51.82
28%
3.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 14.1 | 12.8 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.81 for Parma, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Parma?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cremonese's recent record stands at 7W 16D 22L from 45 games, a 0.82 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Cremonese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Parma, meanwhile, have gone 22W 11D 12L across 45 games — 1.71 PPG, with W-D-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Parma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Parma by 0.89 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cremonese heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cremonese have managed 4W 6D 11L from 21 games — 0.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Parma's away record stands at 8W 7D 6L across 21 trips, a 1.48 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Parma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cremonese are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.38 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Parma in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Early Season
Parma
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Parma in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 7W 16D 22L in their last 45 games (0.82 PPG), while Parma have gone 22W 11D 12L in their last 45 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Parma away?
Parma's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 0.86 PPG; Parma away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Cremonese or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Parma in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Cremonese's record when hosting Parma specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Cremonese
2
Draws
1
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Parma?
From 6 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 3, Parma have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Parma 0-2 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Parma?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 43%, Parma 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Cremonese) and 43% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Cremonese have failed to score in 43% of games; Parma in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Parma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Cremonese's recent matches and 48% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Cremonese's recent games and 43% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Parma tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Parma in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Parma edge out Cremonese 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Cremonese 1-2 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 0.74 xG and Parma 1.81 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.78 / defence 1.09 against Parma attack 1.42 / defence 0.87, drawn from 7/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 12% | Draw 28% | Parma 60%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 47%, Parma 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Parma's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.82. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.