Cremonese 1-2 Parma – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Parma at 60% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cremonese vs Parma encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

Cremonese welcome Parma to Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie B (matchday 8). Kick-off is Sunday 1 October 2023 at 18:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Cremonese have gone 3W 4D 3L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W D D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Cremonese's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Parma — last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Parma away from home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Parma — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Cremonese have won 2, Parma 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 15 Feb 2022, ended Cremonese 3–1 Parma — a Cremonese win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Cremonese trading profile (last 45 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Parma trading profile (last 45 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 56% versus Parma 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 47% | Parma 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 0.74 xG and Parma 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.780 / defence 1.088 | Parma attack 1.417 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.093 / away 1.174. Cremonese's attack rating of 0.780 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.74. Parma have an above-average attack rating of 1.417, which lifts their away xG to 1.81. Data: built from Cremonese's last 7 games and Parma's last 45.

Result probabilities: Cremonese 12% | Draw 28% | Parma 60%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 8.49 | Draw 3.52 | Parma 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Parma (60%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Parma as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Cremonese 50% (last 10 home games) | Parma 50% (last 10 away games).

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