Bari 1-1 Como – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Bari take on Como.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bari host Como at Stadio Comunale San Nicola in Serie B (matchday 8). Kick-off is Sunday 1 October 2023 at 16:15 UK time.
Form Guide
Bari — last 10 games: 2W 6D 2L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Bari's form when playing at home: 3W 6D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Como stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Como's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Como — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Bari have won 0, Como 0, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 15 Apr 2023, ended Bari 2–2 Como — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Bari in-play and half-time data (last 44 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 73%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Como in-play and half-time data (last 44 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bari 46% versus Como 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bari 32% | Como 41%). Note also that Como surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Bari recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 73% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 1.10 xG and Como 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 1.030 / defence 0.923 | Como attack 1.064 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.073 / away 1.171. Data: built from Bari's last 45 games and Como's last 44.
Result probabilities: Bari 31% | Draw 36% | Como 33%. Fair-value odds: Bari 3.27 | Draw 2.77 | Como 3.00. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 61% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Bari's last 10 home games and Como's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bari 40% (last 10 home games) | Como 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Como | Competition: Serie B, matchday 8 | Venue: Stadio Comunale San Nicola • Kick-off: Sunday 1 October 2023 at 16:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 31% | Draw 36% | Como 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Bari 1.10 / Como 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 1.030 / def 0.923 | Como attack 1.064 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.073 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Bari xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Como xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bari vs Como FAQs
What time does Bari vs Como kick off?
Bari vs Como kicked off at 16:15 UK time on Sunday 1 October 2023 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Como?
Bari 1 - 1 Como.
Where is Bari vs Como being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Como part of?
Bari vs Como is a Serie B fixture (matchday 8) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Como?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 31% chance of winning, Como a 33% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Como?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Bari and Como will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Bari vs Como have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bari's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Como's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. The same calculation in reverse, Como's attack versus Bari's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bari's last 45 games and Como's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.27
36%
2.77
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Bari xG
Total xG
2.25
1.15
Como xG
3.27
31%
Home win
2.77
36%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
10%
10.32
11%
8.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 12.2 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bari vs Como Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Como?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Bari and Como expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Bari and 1.15 for Como, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Como?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bari's recent record stands at 17W 17D 10L from 44 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with D-D-D-D-L in the last five.
Como, meanwhile, have gone 14W 18D 12L across 44 games — 1.36 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bari on 1.55 PPG, Como on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bari have managed 8W 10D 4L from their last 22 home games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Como's away record stands at 4W 10D 8L across their last 22 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bari come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bari are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Como are on 1.27 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Bari have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Early Season
Como
Early Season
Bari (Home) vs Como (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bari
Early Season
Como
Early Season
❓ Bari vs Como Form FAQs
What form are Bari and Como in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 17W 17D 10L in their last 44 games (1.55 PPG), while Como have gone 14W 18D 12L in their last 44 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bari at home or Como away?
Bari's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bari at home: 1.55 PPG; Como away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Bari or Como been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bari have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Como in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2022. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 13 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Bari's record when hosting Como specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Bari
3
Draws
1
Como
Recent Meetings
❓ Bari vs Como H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Como?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Bari have won 0, Como have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Como last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 April 2024: Como 2-1 Bari.
Who has won more matches between Bari and Como?
Como have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bari see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bari 46%, Como 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Bari) and 46% (Como).
On the defensive side: Bari keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Como in 36%; Bari have failed to score in 32% of games; Como in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Como away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bari vs Como Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bari and Como matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Bari's recent matches and 46% of Como's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bari and Como matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Bari's recent games and 46% of Como's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bari and Como matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Bari's recent matches and 73% of Como's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bari and Como share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bari and Como finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.10 xG and Como 1.15 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 1.03 / defence 0.92 against Como attack 1.06 / defence 0.99, drawn from 45/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bari 31% | Draw 36% | Como 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 32%, Como 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Como's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bari 1.55 PPG, Como 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Serie B fixtures — matchday 8
All Serie B fixtures →
More Italian football predictions →