Cremonese 4-0 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 33%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cremonese vs Modena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cremonese host Modena at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie B, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 December 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cremonese — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cremonese at Stadio Giovanni Zini this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Giovanni Zini. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Modena stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Modena away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cremonese at 1.90 PPG versus Modena's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Cremonese in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Modena in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 51% versus Modena 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 47% | Modena 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 0.96 xG and Modena 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.885 / defence 0.879 | Modena attack 0.981 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.123. Data: 17 Cremonese games / 55 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 33% | Draw 33% | Modena 33%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 3.03 | Draw 3.03 | Modena 3.03. The draw (33%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 33% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.93 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates are neutral: Cremonese 30% | Modena 70%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Dec 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 33% | Draw 33% | Modena 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Cremonese 0.96 / Modena 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.885 / def 0.879 | Modena attack 0.981 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Draw (33%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Modena xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Modena kick off?
Cremonese vs Modena kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 23 December 2023 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Modena?
Cremonese 4 - 0 Modena.
Where is Cremonese vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Modena part of?
Cremonese vs Modena is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 33% chance of winning, Modena a 33% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Cremonese and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Modena?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cremonese and Modena in?
Cremonese (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Modena (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cremonese's attack rating (0.89) and Modena's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Modena's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
33%
3.01
33%
2.99
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Cremonese xG
Total xG
1.93
0.97
Modena xG
3.01
33%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
13%
7.94
13%
7.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 14.0 | 6.8 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Cremonese and 0.97 for Modena, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 33%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cremonese's recent record stands at 13W 17D 25L from 55 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Modena, meanwhile, have gone 20W 15D 20L across 55 games — 1.36 PPG, with L-D-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cremonese on 1.02 PPG, Modena on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cremonese have managed 7W 7D 13L from 27 games — 1.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Modena's away record stands at 9W 5D 13L across 27 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Cremonese are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.18 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Blended
Modena
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Modena in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 13W 17D 25L in their last 55 games (1.02 PPG), while Modena have gone 20W 15D 20L in their last 55 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Modena away?
Modena's away record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.04 PPG; Modena away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Dec 2023, when Cremonese won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cremonese's record when hosting Modena specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Cremonese
2
Draws
0
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Modena?
From 4 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 2, Modena have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2025, when Cremonese 2-2 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Modena?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 37%, Modena 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Cremonese) and 56% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Cremonese have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Modena?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Cremonese's recent matches and 63% of Modena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Cremonese's recent games and 56% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Modena tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Modena in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cremonese run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Modena.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Modena 4-0 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 0.96 xG and Modena 0.97 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Cremonese beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Modena landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.89 / defence 0.88 against Modena attack 0.98 / defence 0.94, drawn from 17/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 33% | Draw 33% | Modena 33%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 33%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 47%, Modena 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Modena's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.02 PPG, Modena 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cremonese win broke the near-deadlock. Cremonese (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Modena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.