Bari 0-0 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bari at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bari face Cosenza.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bari host Cosenza at Stadio Comunale San Nicola in Serie B (matchday 18). Kick-off is Saturday 23 December 2023 at 15:15 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Bari stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bari's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Cosenza — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Cosenza have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bari at 1.30 PPG versus Cosenza's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Bari, 0 for Cosenza and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 Feb 2023, ended Bari 2–1 Cosenza — a Bari win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Bari in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 69%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Cosenza in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bari 49% versus Cosenza 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bari 35% | Cosenza 37%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Bari surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Cosenza have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Cosenza surrender HT leads in 30% of cases while Bari recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 69% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 1.18 xG and Cosenza 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 0.954 / defence 1.040 | Cosenza attack 0.635 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.220 / away 1.150. Cosenza's attack rating of 0.635 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.76. Data: built from Bari's last 55 games and Cosenza's last 55.
Result probabilities: Bari 45% | Draw 32% | Cosenza 23%. Fair-value odds: Bari 2.23 | Draw 3.11 | Cosenza 4.36. Bari hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bari are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.94 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 69% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Bari's last 10 home games and Cosenza's last 10 away games) averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bari 50% (last 10 home games) | Cosenza 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, matchday 18 | Venue: Stadio Comunale San Nicola • Kick-off: Saturday 23 December 2023 at 15:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 45% | Draw 32% | Cosenza 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Bari 1.18 / Cosenza 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 0.954 / def 1.040 | Cosenza attack 0.635 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.220 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Bari (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Bari xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Cosenza xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bari vs Cosenza FAQs
What time does Bari vs Cosenza kick off?
Bari vs Cosenza kicked off at 15:15 UK time on Saturday 23 December 2023 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Cosenza?
Bari 0 - 0 Cosenza.
Where is Bari vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Cosenza part of?
Bari vs Cosenza is a Serie B fixture (matchday 18) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 45% chance of winning, Cosenza a 23% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Bari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Bari and Cosenza will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Bari vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bari's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Cosenza's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, Cosenza's attack versus Bari's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bari's last 55 games and Cosenza's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.3%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
45%
2.23
32%
3.11
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Bari xG
Total xG
1.94
0.76
Cosenza xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
21%
4.76
7%
14.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 11.0 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.0 | 12.9 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bari vs Cosenza Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Bari and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Bari and 0.76 for Cosenza, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, Bari have picked up 1.54 PPG on a 22W 22D 13L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Cosenza's form line: 15W 19D 23L from 57 games, 1.12 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-D.
Put side by side, Bari are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cosenza.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bari have posted 1.54 PPG from their last 28 home games (10W 13D 5L).
On the road, Cosenza have gone 4W 9D 15L from their last 28 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bari come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bari are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 0.88 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Blended
Cosenza
Blended
Bari (Home) vs Cosenza (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bari
Blended
Cosenza
Blended
❓ Bari vs Cosenza Form FAQs
What form are Bari and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 22W 22D 13L in their last 57 games (1.54 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 15W 19D 23L in their last 57 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bari at home or Cosenza away?
Bari's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bari at home: 1.54 PPG; Cosenza away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Bari or Cosenza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bari have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Cosenza in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2022. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 1 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Apr 2024, when Cosenza won Cosenza 4-1 Bari.
Bari's record when hosting Cosenza specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Bari
2
Draws
2
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Bari vs Cosenza H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Cosenza?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Bari have won 2, Cosenza have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Cosenza last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 May 2025: Cosenza 1-0 Bari.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bari see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 80% of those situations.
Cosenza see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bari 50%, Cosenza 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 39% for Bari and 29% for Cosenza.
On the defensive side: Bari keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Bari have failed to score in 29% of games; Cosenza in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bari vs Cosenza Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bari and Cosenza matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bari's recent matches and 39% of Cosenza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bari and Cosenza matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Bari's recent games and 29% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Bari's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bari and Cosenza finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.18 xG and Cosenza 0.76 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bari fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 0.95 / defence 1.04 against Cosenza attack 0.64 / defence 1.01, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bari 45% | Draw 32% | Cosenza 23%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 35%, Cosenza 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cosenza's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bari arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Cosenza (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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