Cittadella 0-0 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Cremonese (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cittadella face Cremonese.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato plays host to Cittadella versus Cremonese in Serie B, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Sunday 15 December 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Cittadella (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cittadella, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cittadella have posted 0W 8D 2L at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Cremonese have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Cremonese have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Cremonese are 0.80 PPG clear of Cittadella in recent Serie B fixtures (1.40 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 4 meetings, Cremonese have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Cittadella's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2024, ended 0–3 with Cremonese winning.
It is worth noting that Cremonese have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Cittadella half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Cremonese half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cittadella 50% versus Cremonese 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cittadella 43% | Cremonese 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cittadella 0.86 xG and Cremonese 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cittadella attack 0.718 / defence 1.010 | Cremonese attack 1.320 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.262 / away 1.096. Cittadella's attack strength of 0.718 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Cremonese have an above-average attack strength of 1.320 — the away xG of 1.46 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 54 Cittadella games / 54 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cittadella 20% | Draw 31% | Cremonese 49%. Fair-value odds: Cittadella 5.00 | Draw 3.23 | Cremonese 2.04. Cremonese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cremonese as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cremonese if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cittadella 50% | Cremonese 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cittadella vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Dec 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cittadella 20% | Draw 31% | Cremonese 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Cittadella 0.86 / Cremonese 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Cittadella attack 0.718 / def 1.010 | Cremonese attack 1.320 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.262 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Cittadella xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Cremonese xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cittadella vs Cremonese kick off?
Cittadella vs Cremonese kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 15 December 2024 at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What was the final score in Cittadella vs Cremonese?
Cittadella 0 - 0 Cremonese.
Where is Cittadella vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What competition is Cittadella vs Cremonese part of?
Cittadella vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cittadella vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Cittadella a 20% chance of winning, Cremonese a 49% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cittadella vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Cittadella and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Cittadella vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Cremonese?
Record (4 meetings): Cittadella 0W | Draws 0 | Cremonese 4W.
What form are Cittadella and Cremonese in?
Cittadella (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Cremonese (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Cittadella's attack rating (0.72) and Cremonese's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 0.86 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cremonese's attack (1.32x) against Cittadella's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.8%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
20%
5.00
31%
3.24
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 2
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Cittadella xG
Total xG
2.32
1.46
Cremonese xG
5.00
20%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
42%
2.36
Win to Nil
5%
21.53
21%
4.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 14.4 | 10.5 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.3 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cittadella vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Cittadella and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Cittadella and 1.46 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Cittadella vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cittadella's recent record stands at 14W 18D 22L from 54 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Cittadella is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cremonese, meanwhile, have gone 26W 13D 15L across 54 games — 1.69 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cremonese by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cittadella heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Cittadella have managed 7W 11D 8L from 26 games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cremonese's away record stands at 12W 6D 8L across 26 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cittadella are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.43 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cittadella
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cittadella and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Cittadella have gone 14W 18D 22L in their last 54 games (1.11 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 26W 13D 15L in their last 54 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cittadella at home or Cremonese away?
Cremonese's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cittadella at home: 1.23 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Cittadella or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cittadella have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Cremonese in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cremonese won 3-0 on 10 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cittadella have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cremonese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Cittadella
2
Draws
4
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Cremonese?
From 6 meetings on record, Cittadella have won 0, Cremonese have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cittadella and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when Cremonese 2-2 Cittadella.
Who has won more matches between Cittadella and Cremonese?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cittadella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cittadella 58%, Cremonese 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Cittadella) and 58% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Cittadella keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Cremonese in 31%; Cittadella have failed to score in 31% of games; Cremonese in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cittadella home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cittadella play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Cittadella's recent matches and 50% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cittadella vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Cittadella's recent games and 58% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cittadella and Cremonese tend to score early?
Cittadella have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cittadella's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato, Regular Season - 17, as Cittadella and Cremonese drew 0-0 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cittadella 0.86 xG and Cremonese 1.46 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cittadella fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Cremonese landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cittadella attack 0.72 / defence 1.01 against Cremonese attack 1.32 / defence 0.95, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cittadella 20% | Draw 31% | Cremonese 49%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cittadella 43%, Cremonese 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cittadella's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cremonese's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cittadella (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.