Cesena 1-2 Juve Stabia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cesena at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cesena vs Juve Stabia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cesena and Juve Stabia meet at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi in Serie B, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 30 March 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Cesena (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi, Cesena have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi.
Juve Stabia's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Juve Stabia away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Cesena, 1 for Juve Stabia and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Dec 2024, ended 0–1 with Juve Stabia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Cesena — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Juve Stabia — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cesena 57% versus Juve Stabia 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cesena 40% | Juve Stabia 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cesena 1.29 xG and Juve Stabia 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cesena attack 0.902 / defence 0.910 | Juve Stabia attack 0.796 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 1.246 / away 1.123. Data: 30 Cesena games / 30 Juve Stabia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cesena 46% | Draw 32% | Juve Stabia 22%. Fair-value odds: Cesena 2.17 | Draw 3.12 | Juve Stabia 4.55. Cesena hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cesena as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cesena if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Cesena 40% | Juve Stabia 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cesena vs Juve Stabia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Mar 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cesena 46% | Draw 32% | Juve Stabia 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Cesena 1.29 / Juve Stabia 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Cesena attack 0.902 / def 0.910 | Juve Stabia attack 0.796 / def 1.149 | league avg home 1.246 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Cesena (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Cesena xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Juve Stabia xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cesena vs Juve Stabia kick off?
Cesena vs Juve Stabia kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 30 March 2025 at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi.
What was the final score in Cesena vs Juve Stabia?
Cesena 1 - 2 Juve Stabia.
Where is Cesena vs Juve Stabia being played?
The match is being played at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi.
What competition is Cesena vs Juve Stabia part of?
Cesena vs Juve Stabia is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cesena vs Juve Stabia?
Our statistical model gives Cesena a 46% chance of winning, Juve Stabia a 22% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Cesena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cesena vs Juve Stabia?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Cesena and Juve Stabia will score (BTTS).
Will Cesena vs Juve Stabia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cesena and Juve Stabia?
Record (1 meetings): Cesena 0W | Draws 0 | Juve Stabia 1W.
What form are Cesena and Juve Stabia in?
Cesena (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. Juve Stabia (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cesena's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Juve Stabia's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Juve Stabia's attack (0.80x) against Cesena's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.1%), 0-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cesena Win
46%
2.17
32%
3.13
22%
4.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Cesena xG
Total xG
2.10
0.81
Juve Stabia xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
4.56
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
20%
4.89
6%
16.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 9.9 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 12.8 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cesena vs Juve Stabia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Cesena and Juve Stabia expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Cesena and 0.81 for Juve Stabia, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Cesena vs Juve Stabia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 30 outings, Cesena have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 11W 9D 10L record — D-W-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Juve Stabia's form line: 11W 10D 9L from 30 games, 1.43 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Cesena against 1.43 for Juve Stabia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cesena have posted 1.80 PPG from 15 outings (7W 6D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Cesena are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Juve Stabia have gone 3W 7D 5L from 15 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cesena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cesena are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Juve Stabia are on 1.17 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cesena
Current Season
Juve Stabia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cesena and Juve Stabia in coming into this match?
Cesena have gone 11W 9D 10L in their last 30 games (1.40 PPG), while Juve Stabia have gone 11W 10D 9L in their last 30 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cesena at home or Juve Stabia away?
Cesena's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cesena at home: 1.80 PPG; Juve Stabia away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Cesena or Juve Stabia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cesena have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Juve Stabia in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cesena have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Juve Stabia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cesena
1
Draws
3
Juve Stabia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cesena and Juve Stabia?
From 4 meetings on record, Cesena have won 0, Juve Stabia have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cesena and Juve Stabia last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Juve Stabia 2-0 Cesena.
Who has won more matches between Cesena and Juve Stabia?
Juve Stabia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cesena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cesena 53%, Juve Stabia 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Cesena) and 47% (Juve Stabia).
On the defensive side: Cesena keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Juve Stabia in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cesena home games / Juve Stabia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cesena play Juve Stabia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Cesena's games and 60% of Juve Stabia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cesena vs Juve Stabia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Cesena's recent games and 47% of Juve Stabia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cesena and Juve Stabia tend to score early?
Cesena have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Juve Stabia in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Juve Stabia defy the odds to beat Cesena 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juve Stabia beat Cesena 1-2 at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cesena 1.29 xG and Juve Stabia 0.81 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Juve Stabia outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cesena attack 0.90 / defence 0.91 against Juve Stabia attack 0.80 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cesena 46% | Draw 32% | Juve Stabia 22%, with Cesena to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Juve Stabia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cesena 40%, Juve Stabia 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cesena's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Juve Stabia's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cesena 1.40 PPG, Juve Stabia 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juve Stabia win broke the near-deadlock. Cesena (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.