Juve Stabia 1-0 Salernitana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juve Stabia at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juve Stabia vs Salernitana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 32 as Juve Stabia welcome Salernitana to Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 April 2025 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Juve Stabia stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Juve Stabia at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Across all Serie B games this season, Salernitana have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Salernitana have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Juve Stabia) versus 1.20 (Salernitana). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Juve Stabia, 0 for Salernitana and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2024, ended 2–1 with Juve Stabia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Juve Stabia trading profile (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Salernitana trading profile (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 58% versus Salernitana 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 55% | Salernitana 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.46 xG and Salernitana 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 1.070 / defence 1.002 | Salernitana attack 0.572 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.230 / away 1.149. Data: 31 Juve Stabia games / 31 Salernitana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 55% | Draw 30% | Salernitana 15%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 1.82 | Draw 3.33 | Salernitana 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Juve Stabia (55%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Juve Stabia are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.11 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Juve Stabia 50% | Salernitana 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Salernitana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Apr 2025, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 55% | Draw 30% | Salernitana 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 39% | xG Juve Stabia 1.46 / Salernitana 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 1.070 / def 1.002 | Salernitana attack 0.572 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.230 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Juve Stabia (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Salernitana xG
39%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juve Stabia vs Salernitana kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Salernitana kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 5 April 2025 at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Juve Stabia vs Salernitana?
Juve Stabia 1 - 0 Salernitana.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Salernitana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Salernitana part of?
Juve Stabia vs Salernitana is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Salernitana?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 55% chance of winning, Salernitana a 15% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Juve Stabia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Salernitana?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Juve Stabia and Salernitana will score (BTTS).
Will Juve Stabia vs Salernitana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Salernitana?
Record (1 meetings): Juve Stabia 1W | Draws 0 | Salernitana 0W.
What form are Juve Stabia and Salernitana in?
Juve Stabia (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Salernitana (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Juve Stabia's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Salernitana's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. The same calculation in reverse, Salernitana's attack versus Juve Stabia's defence, projects 0.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 16.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
55%
1.83
30%
3.32
15%
6.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
2.11
0.66
Salernitana xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
6.58
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
52%
1.93
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
28%
3.53
4%
28.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 8.0 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.6 | 11.6 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Salernitana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Salernitana expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 0.66 for Salernitana, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Salernitana?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 31 outings, Juve Stabia have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 12W 10D 9L record — L-L-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Salernitana's form line: 7W 9D 15L from 31 games, 0.97 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-L.
Put side by side, Juve Stabia are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Salernitana.
Venue Form
On home soil, Juve Stabia have posted 1.80 PPG from 15 outings (8W 3D 4L).
On the road, Salernitana have gone 1W 5D 9L from 15 away games — 0.53 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.97 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Salernitana's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juve Stabia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Salernitana are on 0.90 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Current Season
Salernitana
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juve Stabia and Salernitana in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 12W 10D 9L in their last 31 games (1.48 PPG), while Salernitana have gone 7W 9D 15L in their last 31 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juve Stabia at home or Salernitana away?
Juve Stabia's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juve Stabia at home: 1.80 PPG; Salernitana away: 0.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Juve Stabia
0
Draws
0
Salernitana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Salernitana?
From 2 meetings on record, Juve Stabia have won 2, Salernitana have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Juve Stabia and Salernitana last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Juve Stabia 1-0 Salernitana.
Who has won more matches between Juve Stabia and Salernitana?
Juve Stabia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Salernitana see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juve Stabia 53%, Salernitana 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Juve Stabia) and 27% (Salernitana).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Salernitana in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Salernitana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juve Stabia play Salernitana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Juve Stabia's recent matches and 33% of Salernitana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juve Stabia vs Salernitana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Juve Stabia's recent games and 27% of Salernitana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juve Stabia and Salernitana tend to score early?
Juve Stabia have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Salernitana in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Juve Stabia edge out Salernitana 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juve Stabia beat Salernitana 1-0 at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.46 xG and Salernitana 0.66 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 1.07 / defence 1.00 against Salernitana attack 0.57 / defence 1.10, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 55% | Draw 30% | Salernitana 15%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 55%, Salernitana 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juve Stabia's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Salernitana's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Juve Stabia arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.97. Form held, and they took the win. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.