Carrarese 1-0 Palermo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Carrarese take on Palermo.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Carrarese host Palermo at Stadio dei Marmi in Serie B, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 December 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Carrarese — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Carrarese at Stadio dei Marmi this season: 3W 3D 1L from 7 home games — 1.71 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.43 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 7 home games (71%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio dei Marmi. At home, both teams have scored in only 14% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie B games this season, Palermo have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Palermo have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Carrarese at 1.30 PPG versus Palermo's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Carrarese in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Palermo in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 33% versus Palermo 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Carrarese 33% | Palermo 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 0.92 xG and Palermo 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 0.796 / defence 0.782 | Palermo attack 1.039 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.235 / away 1.105. Carrarese's attack strength of 0.796 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Carrarese's defence rating of 0.782 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 15 Carrarese games / 53 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carrarese 31% | Draw 39% | Palermo 30%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 3.23 | Draw 2.56 | Palermo 3.33. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.81 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Carrarese 14% | Palermo 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carrarese vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio dei Marmi • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Dec 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carrarese 31% | Draw 39% | Palermo 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 39% | xG Carrarese 0.92 / Palermo 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Carrarese attack 0.796 / def 0.782 | Palermo attack 1.039 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.235 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Carrarese xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Palermo xG
39%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carrarese vs Palermo kick off?
Carrarese vs Palermo kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Stadio dei Marmi.
What was the final score in Carrarese vs Palermo?
Carrarese 1 - 0 Palermo.
Where is Carrarese vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio dei Marmi.
What competition is Carrarese vs Palermo part of?
Carrarese vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Carrarese vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Carrarese a 31% chance of winning, Palermo a 30% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Carrarese vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Carrarese and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Carrarese vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Palermo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Carrarese and Palermo in?
Carrarese (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Palermo (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Carrarese's attack rating (0.80) and Palermo's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Palermo's attack versus Carrarese's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.21
39%
2.58
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Carrarese xG
Total xG
1.81
0.90
Palermo xG
3.21
31%
Home win
2.58
39%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
13%
7.87
12%
8.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.3 | 14.6 | 6.6 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carrarese vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.0%.
How many goals are Carrarese and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Carrarese and 0.90 for Palermo, a combined total of 1.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Carrarese vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Carrarese come into this having played 15 games, going 4W 4D 7L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-L. The sample for Carrarese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Palermo sit at 1.40 PPG from 15 outings (5W 6D 4L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Carrarese on 1.07 PPG, Palermo on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Carrarese's home form reads 3W 3D 1L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.07 PPG overall — Carrarese are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Palermo have taken 1.71 points per game from 7 outings (3W 3D 1L).
The Goals Picture
Carrarese are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.07 scored and 0.80 conceded.
Defensively: Carrarese have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carrarese
Blended
Palermo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carrarese and Palermo in coming into this match?
Carrarese have gone 4W 4D 7L in their last 15 games (1.07 PPG), while Palermo have gone 5W 6D 4L in their last 15 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carrarese at home or Palermo away?
Carrarese's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carrarese at home: 1.71 PPG; Palermo away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Carrarese or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Carrarese have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Palermo in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Carrarese and Palermo runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Palermo go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Nov 2025, when Palermo won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Carrarese's record when hosting Palermo specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Carrarese
1
Draws
2
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Palermo?
From 4 meetings on record, Carrarese have won 1, Palermo have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Carrarese and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Carrarese 0-1 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Carrarese and Palermo?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Carrarese tend to start slowly — only 29% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Carrarese 14%, Palermo 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 14% for Carrarese and 43% for Palermo.
On the defensive side: Carrarese keep a clean sheet in 71% of their matches; Carrarese have failed to score in 43% of games; Palermo in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carrarese home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carrarese play Palermo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 14% of Carrarese's recent matches and 57% of Palermo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Carrarese vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Carrarese's recent games and 43% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Carrarese and Palermo tend to score early?
Carrarese have had a goal before half-time in 29% of their recent matches, Palermo in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Carrarese edge out Palermo 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Carrarese beat Palermo 1-0 at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 0.92 xG and Palermo 0.90 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Palermo landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 0.80 / defence 0.78 against Palermo attack 1.04 / defence 0.93, drawn from 15/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carrarese 31% | Draw 39% | Palermo 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Carrarese win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 27% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 33%, Palermo 20%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carrarese's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Palermo's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Carrarese 1.07 PPG, Palermo 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Carrarese win broke the near-deadlock. Palermo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.