Carrarese 2-0 Cesena – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Carrarese at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Carrarese vs Cesena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Carrarese and Cesena meet at Stadio dei Marmi in Serie B, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 29 December 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Carrarese's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Carrarese's home record at Stadio dei Marmi: 5W 3D 1L from 9 Serie B appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 9 home games (78%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio dei Marmi. At home, both teams have scored in only 11% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Cesena (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cesena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cesena away from home this season: 1W 2D 6L from 9 away games — 0.56 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.89 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.56 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Carrarese, 1.40 for Cesena — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Carrarese 0W, Cesena 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2024, ended 1–2 with Cesena winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Carrarese — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 22% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 11% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 11% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Cesena — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 32% versus Cesena 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Carrarese 26% | Cesena 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.12 xG and Cesena 0.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 0.789 / defence 0.668 | Cesena attack 0.815 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.055. Carrarese's attack strength of 0.789 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Carrarese's defence rating of 0.668 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 19 Carrarese games / 19 Cesena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carrarese 47% | Draw 36% | Cesena 17%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 2.13 | Draw 2.78 | Cesena 5.88. Carrarese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (36%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.70. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.70 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Cesena's lower xG of 0.57 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Carrarese at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Carrarese if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.70 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 24% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 31% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Carrarese 11% | Cesena 56% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carrarese vs Cesena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio dei Marmi • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Dec 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carrarese 47% | Draw 36% | Cesena 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 31% | xG Carrarese 1.12 / Cesena 0.57 • Poisson strength factors: Carrarese attack 0.789 / def 0.668 | Cesena attack 0.815 / def 1.144 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.055 • Poisson stance: Carrarese (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Carrarese xG
Expected Goals
0.57
Cesena xG
31%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carrarese vs Cesena kick off?
Carrarese vs Cesena kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 29 December 2024 at Stadio dei Marmi.
What was the final score in Carrarese vs Cesena?
Carrarese 2 - 0 Cesena.
Where is Carrarese vs Cesena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio dei Marmi.
What competition is Carrarese vs Cesena part of?
Carrarese vs Cesena is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Carrarese vs Cesena?
Our statistical model gives Carrarese a 47% chance of winning, Cesena a 17% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Carrarese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carrarese vs Cesena?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Carrarese and Cesena will score (BTTS).
Will Carrarese vs Cesena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Cesena?
Record (1 meetings): Carrarese 0W | Draws 0 | Cesena 1W.
What form are Carrarese and Cesena in?
Carrarese (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Cesena (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Carrarese's attack at 0.79x the league average against Cesena's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cesena's attack (0.81x) against Carrarese's defence (0.67x) — and the away total comes out at 0.57.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (19.0%), 1-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Carrarese Win
47%
2.12
36%
2.79
17%
5.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
20.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
18.4%
Draw
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Carrarese xG
Total xG
1.70
0.57
Cesena xG
2.12
47%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
5.87
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.20
69%
BTTS No
1.46
Clean Sheet
56%
1.78
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
26%
3.77
6%
18.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.4 | 10.6 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 20.6 | 11.8 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 6.6 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carrarese vs Cesena?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.9%.
How many goals are Carrarese and Cesena expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Carrarese and 0.57 for Cesena, a combined total of 1.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Carrarese vs Cesena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Carrarese come into this having played 19 games, going 6W 6D 7L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-D. The sample for Carrarese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cesena sit at 1.32 PPG from 19 outings (7W 4D 8L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Cesena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Carrarese against 1.32 for Cesena. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Carrarese's home form reads 5W 3D 1L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.26 PPG overall — Carrarese are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Cesena have taken 0.56 points per game from 9 outings (1W 2D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cesena's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Carrarese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Carrarese are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Cesena are on 1.42 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Defensively: Carrarese have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carrarese
Blended
Cesena
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carrarese and Cesena in coming into this match?
Carrarese have gone 6W 6D 7L in their last 19 games (1.26 PPG), while Cesena have gone 7W 4D 8L in their last 19 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carrarese at home or Cesena away?
Carrarese's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carrarese at home: 2.00 PPG; Cesena away: 0.56 PPG.
Have Carrarese or Cesena been keeping clean sheets recently?
Carrarese have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their recent games, Cesena in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Carrarese have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cesena — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Carrarese
1
Draws
2
Cesena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Cesena?
From 4 meetings on record, Carrarese have won 1, Cesena have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Carrarese and Cesena last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Carrarese 0-0 Cesena.
Who has won more matches between Carrarese and Cesena?
Cesena have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Carrarese tend to start slowly — only 22% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Cesena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 11% (Carrarese) and 56% (Cesena) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 11% for Carrarese and 44% for Cesena.
On the defensive side: Carrarese keep a clean sheet in 78% of their matches; Carrarese have failed to score in 33% of games; Cesena in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carrarese home games / Cesena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carrarese play Cesena?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 11% of Carrarese's recent matches and 56% of Cesena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Carrarese vs Cesena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 11% of Carrarese's recent games and 44% of Cesena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Carrarese and Cesena tend to score early?
Carrarese have had a goal before half-time in 22% of their recent matches, Cesena in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Carrarese cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cesena.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Carrarese beat Cesena 2-0 at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 1.12 xG and Cesena 0.57 xG, a combined 1.70. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Carrarese beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 0.79 / defence 0.67 against Cesena attack 0.81 / defence 1.14, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carrarese 47% | Draw 36% | Cesena 17%, with Carrarese to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 26%, Cesena 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carrarese's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cesena's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Carrarese 1.26 PPG, Cesena 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Carrarese win broke the near-deadlock. Carrarese (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Cesena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.