Carrarese vs Benevento – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Carrarese at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Carrarese vs Benevento fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 5 as Carrarese welcome Benevento to Stadio dei Marmi. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 September 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Carrarese stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Carrarese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Carrarese's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Stadio dei Marmi this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Benevento — All Games: 0W 1D 2L from 3 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.33 PPG. Last five: L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Carrarese are in the better shape of the two on current Serie B data — 0.57 PPG ahead (0.90 vs 0.33). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Carrarese trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Benevento trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Carrarese 67% and Benevento 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Carrarese 33% | Benevento 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.25 xG and Benevento 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 0.813 / defence 1.029 | Benevento attack 0.696 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.158. Data: 41 Carrarese games / 3 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carrarese 46% | Draw 29% | Benevento 25%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Benevento 4.00. Carrarese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Carrarese as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Carrarese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Carrarese 40% | Benevento 67%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carrarese vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio dei Marmi • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carrarese 46% | Draw 29% | Benevento 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG Carrarese 1.25 / Benevento 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Carrarese attack 0.813 / def 1.029 | Benevento attack 0.696 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Carrarese (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Carrarese xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Benevento xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carrarese vs Benevento kick off?
Carrarese vs Benevento is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 19 September 2026 at Stadio dei Marmi.
Where is Carrarese vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio dei Marmi.
What competition is Carrarese vs Benevento part of?
Carrarese vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Carrarese vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Carrarese a 46% chance of winning, Benevento a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Carrarese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carrarese vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Carrarese and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Carrarese vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Benevento?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Carrarese and Benevento in?
Carrarese (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Benevento (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Carrarese's attack rating (0.81) and Benevento's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Benevento's attack versus Carrarese's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Carrarese Win
46%
2.17
29%
3.42
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Carrarese xG
Total xG
2.08
0.83
Benevento xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
20%
4.96
7%
14.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 10.4 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 13.0 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carrarese vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Carrarese and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Carrarese and 0.83 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Carrarese vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Carrarese's recent record stands at 0W 1D 2L from 3 games, a 0.33 PPG return, with L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Carrarese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Benevento, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 2L across 3 games — 0.33 PPG, with L-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Carrarese on 0.33 PPG, Benevento on 0.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Carrarese are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 0.67 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Carrarese have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Benevento in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carrarese
Early Season
Benevento
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carrarese and Benevento in coming into this match?
Carrarese have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 games (0.33 PPG), while Benevento have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 (0.33 PPG).
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Carrarese see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Benevento see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Carrarese at 67%, Benevento at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Carrarese and 33% for Benevento.
On the defensive side: Carrarese have failed to score in 33% of games; Benevento in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carrarese home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carrarese play Benevento?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Carrarese's games and 67% of Benevento's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Carrarese vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Carrarese's recent games and 33% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.