Brescia 2-1 Reggiana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reggiana at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brescia vs Reggiana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Brescia and Reggiana meet at Stadio Mario Rigamonti in Serie B, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 13 May 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Brescia have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Brescia have gone 0W 7D 3L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Reggiana's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Reggiana have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Brescia, 1.40 for Reggiana — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Brescia have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Reggiana in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Brescia 0W, Reggiana 1W, 2D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2024, ended 0–2 with Reggiana winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Brescia — key trading statistics (75 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Reggiana — key trading statistics (75 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 56% versus Reggiana 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Brescia 37% | Reggiana 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 1.21 xG and Reggiana 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 0.787 / defence 1.098 | Reggiana attack 1.049 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 1.160. Brescia's attack strength of 0.787 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 75 Brescia games / 75 Reggiana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brescia 32% | Draw 29% | Reggiana 39%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Reggiana 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reggiana at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reggiana if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Brescia 60% | Reggiana 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Reggiana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 May 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 32% | Draw 29% | Reggiana 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Brescia 1.21 / Reggiana 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 0.787 / def 1.098 | Reggiana attack 1.049 / def 1.170 | league avg home 1.309 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Reggiana (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Reggiana xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brescia vs Reggiana kick off?
Brescia vs Reggiana kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 13 May 2025 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Reggiana?
Brescia 2 - 1 Reggiana.
Where is Brescia vs Reggiana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Reggiana part of?
Brescia vs Reggiana is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Reggiana?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 32% chance of winning, Reggiana a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Reggiana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Reggiana?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Brescia and Reggiana will score (BTTS).
Will Brescia vs Reggiana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Reggiana?
Record (3 meetings): Brescia 0W | Draws 2 | Reggiana 1W.
What form are Brescia and Reggiana in?
Brescia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. Reggiana (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Brescia's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Reggiana's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. Flip it around — Reggiana's attack (1.05x) against Brescia's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggiana Win
32%
3.09
29%
3.44
39%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Brescia xG
Total xG
2.54
1.34
Reggiana xG
3.09
32%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.60
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
9%
11.74
12%
8.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.5 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.7 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Reggiana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Brescia and Reggiana expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Brescia and 1.34 for Reggiana, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Reggiana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Brescia come into this having played 75 games, going 19W 31D 25L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-D.
On the other side, Reggiana sit at 1.21 PPG from 75 outings (21W 28D 26L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Brescia against 1.21 for Reggiana. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Brescia's home form reads 9W 17D 10L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Reggiana have taken 1.31 points per game from 36 outings (12W 11D 13L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Brescia are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Reggiana are on 1.05 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 75 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Current Season
Reggiana
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brescia and Reggiana in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 19W 31D 25L in their last 75 games (1.17 PPG), while Reggiana have gone 21W 28D 26L in their last 75 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Reggiana away?
Reggiana's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.22 PPG; Reggiana away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brescia have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Reggiana — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Brescia
2
Draws
1
Reggiana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Reggiana?
From 4 meetings on record, Brescia have won 1, Reggiana have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Reggiana last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2025, when Brescia 2-1 Reggiana.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brescia 56%, Reggiana 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Brescia) and 44% (Reggiana).
On the defensive side: Brescia keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Brescia have failed to score in 33% of games; Reggiana in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Reggiana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brescia play Reggiana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Brescia's recent matches and 50% of Reggiana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Brescia vs Reggiana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Brescia's recent games and 44% of Reggiana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brescia and Reggiana tend to score early?
Brescia have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Reggiana in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Brescia defy the odds to beat Reggiana 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brescia beat Reggiana 2-1 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 1.21 xG and Reggiana 1.34 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 0.79 / defence 1.10 against Reggiana attack 1.05 / defence 1.17, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 32% | Draw 29% | Reggiana 39%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Brescia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 37%, Reggiana 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (75 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Reggiana's trading profile (75 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brescia 1.17 PPG, Reggiana 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brescia win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.