Benevento 2-2 Vicenza Virtus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Benevento at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Benevento vs Vicenza Virtus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Vicenza Virtus make the trip to Stadio Ciro Vigorito to face Benevento in Serie B, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Benevento have collected 1.67 PPG across 6 Serie B outings this season: 3W 1D 2L. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 0.83 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Benevento at Stadio Ciro Vigorito this season: 2W 1D 1L from 4 home games — 1.75 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Vicenza Virtus's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 2D 3L from 6 games (0.83 PPG). Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.17 per game is modest, conceding 2.17 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.17 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Vicenza Virtus have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Vicenza Virtus's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 2L across 3 road games this term (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.84 in Benevento's favour (1.67 vs 0.83) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Benevento have seen both teams score in 75% of their games, Vicenza Virtus in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Benevento lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2022, ended 1–0 with Benevento winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Benevento goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
Vicenza Virtus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benevento 50% versus Vicenza Virtus 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benevento 33% | Vicenza Virtus 83%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.80 xG and Vicenza Virtus 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 1.049 / defence 0.961 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.817 / defence 1.292. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.253. Vicenza Virtus bring a strong defensive rating of 1.292 — this is suppressing Benevento's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Benevento games / 6 Vicenza Virtus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 56% | Draw 25% | Vicenza Virtus 20%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Vicenza Virtus 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Benevento (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Benevento as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Benevento 75% | Vicenza Virtus 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Vicenza Virtus | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 56% | Draw 25% | Vicenza Virtus 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 53% | xG Benevento 1.80 / Vicenza Virtus 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 1.049 / def 0.961 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.817 / def 1.292 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Benevento (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Vicenza Virtus xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Vicenza Virtus kick off?
Benevento vs Vicenza Virtus kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What was the final score in Benevento vs Vicenza Virtus?
Benevento 2 - 2 Vicenza Virtus.
Where is Benevento vs Vicenza Virtus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Vicenza Virtus part of?
Benevento vs Vicenza Virtus is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 56% chance of winning, Vicenza Virtus a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Benevento and Vicenza Virtus will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Vicenza Virtus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Vicenza Virtus?
Record (2 meetings): Benevento 2W | Draws 0 | Vicenza Virtus 0W.
What form are Benevento and Vicenza Virtus in?
Benevento (all comps): 3W-1D-2L in 6 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 0.83 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 1W-2D-3L in 6 | 0.83 PPG | GF 1.17 / GA 2.17 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Benevento's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Vicenza Virtus's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. Flip it around — Vicenza Virtus's attack (0.82x) against Benevento's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
56%
1.80
25%
4.03
20%
5.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.78
0.98
Vicenza Virtus xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
5.11
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
17%
6.04
Win to Nil
21%
4.81
3%
30.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 10.9 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Benevento and Vicenza Virtus expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Benevento and 0.98 for Vicenza Virtus, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Vicenza Virtus?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 6 outings, Benevento have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 3W 1D 2L record — D-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Vicenza Virtus's form line: 1W 2D 3L from 6 games, 0.83 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Benevento are the form team by 0.84 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vicenza Virtus.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Benevento have posted 2.33 PPG from 3 outings (2W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.67 PPG overall — Benevento are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Vicenza Virtus have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Vicenza Virtus's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benevento come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Benevento are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Vicenza Virtus are on 1.17 scored and 2.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vicenza Virtus in 67%.
Last 6 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Early Season
Vicenza Virtus
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Vicenza Virtus in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 3W 1D 2L in their last 6 games (1.67 PPG), while Vicenza Virtus have gone 1W 2D 3L in their last 6 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benevento at home or Vicenza Virtus away?
Benevento's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benevento at home: 2.33 PPG; Vicenza Virtus away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Benevento or Vicenza Virtus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Vicenza Virtus in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Benevento have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Vicenza Virtus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Benevento
1
Draws
0
Vicenza Virtus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Vicenza Virtus?
From 3 meetings on record, Benevento have won 2, Vicenza Virtus have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Benevento and Vicenza Virtus last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when Benevento 2-2 Vicenza Virtus.
Who has won more matches between Benevento and Vicenza Virtus?
Benevento have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Benevento, 67% for Vicenza Virtus — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 33% for Benevento and 100% for Vicenza Virtus. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Benevento keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Vicenza Virtus in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Vicenza Virtus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Vicenza Virtus?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Benevento's games and 67% of Vicenza Virtus's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Benevento vs Vicenza Virtus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Benevento's matches and 100% of Vicenza Virtus's.
Do Benevento and Vicenza Virtus tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Vicenza Virtus in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Benevento and Vicenza Virtus share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Regular Season - 7, as Benevento and Vicenza Virtus drew 2-2 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benevento 1.80 xG and Vicenza Virtus 0.98 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Vicenza Virtus outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benevento attack 1.05 / defence 0.96 against Vicenza Virtus attack 0.82 / defence 1.29, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benevento 56% | Draw 25% | Vicenza Virtus 20%, with Benevento to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benevento 33%, Vicenza Virtus 83%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benevento's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Vicenza Virtus's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Benevento arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Benevento (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vicenza Virtus (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.