Benevento vs Juve Stabia – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Juve Stabia at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Benevento vs Juve Stabia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 28 as Benevento welcome Juve Stabia to Stadio Ciro Vigorito. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 2 March 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Benevento have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 outings — a 0.33 PPG return. Last five: L D L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Juve Stabia stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Juve Stabia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Juve Stabia have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Juve Stabia's 1.00 PPG return is 0.67 points per game ahead of Benevento's 0.33 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Benevento register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Juve Stabia in 60% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Benevento trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Juve Stabia trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benevento 67% versus Juve Stabia 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benevento 33% | Juve Stabia 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.06 xG and Juve Stabia 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 0.840 / defence 1.168 | Juve Stabia attack 0.964 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.158. Data: 3 Benevento games / 41 Juve Stabia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 30% | Draw 28% | Juve Stabia 42%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | Juve Stabia 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Juve Stabia as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juve Stabia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Benevento 67% | Juve Stabia 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Juve Stabia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 Mar 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 30% | Draw 28% | Juve Stabia 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Benevento 1.06 / Juve Stabia 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 0.840 / def 1.168 | Juve Stabia attack 0.964 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Juve Stabia (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Juve Stabia xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Juve Stabia kick off?
Benevento vs Juve Stabia is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Tuesday 2 March 2027 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
Where is Benevento vs Juve Stabia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Juve Stabia part of?
Benevento vs Juve Stabia is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Juve Stabia?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 30% chance of winning, Juve Stabia a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Juve Stabia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Juve Stabia?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Benevento and Juve Stabia will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Juve Stabia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Juve Stabia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Benevento and Juve Stabia in?
Benevento (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-D-L. Juve Stabia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Benevento's attack at 0.84x the league average against Juve Stabia's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Juve Stabia's attack versus Benevento's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
30%
3.31
28%
3.62
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.36
1.30
Juve Stabia xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
8%
12.20
15%
6.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 12.3 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.9 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Juve Stabia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Benevento and Juve Stabia expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Benevento and 1.30 for Juve Stabia, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Juve Stabia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Benevento come into this having played 3 games, going 0W 1D 2L for 0.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Juve Stabia sit at 1.00 PPG from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L), a run that reads L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Juve Stabia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Juve Stabia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Benevento — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Benevento are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Juve Stabia are on 0.67 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Benevento have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 3 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Early Season
Juve Stabia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Juve Stabia in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 games (0.33 PPG), while Juve Stabia have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 (1.00 PPG).
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Benevento see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benevento 67%, Juve Stabia 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Benevento) and 67% (Juve Stabia).
On the defensive side: Benevento have failed to score in 33% of games; Juve Stabia in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Juve Stabia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Juve Stabia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Benevento's recent matches and 33% of Juve Stabia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benevento vs Juve Stabia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Benevento's recent games and 67% of Juve Stabia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benevento and Juve Stabia tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Juve Stabia in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.