Benevento vs Carrarese – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Carrarese at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benevento vs Carrarese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Benevento host Carrarese at Stadio Ciro Vigorito in Serie B, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 24 April 2027 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Benevento have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 outings — a 0.33 PPG return. Last five: L D L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Carrarese — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Carrarese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Carrarese's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Carrarese's 0.90 PPG return is 0.57 points per game ahead of Benevento's 0.33 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Benevento in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Carrarese in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Benevento 67% and Carrarese 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Benevento 33% | Carrarese 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.23 xG and Carrarese 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 0.840 / defence 1.168 | Carrarese attack 0.942 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.158. Data: 3 Benevento games / 41 Carrarese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 35% | Draw 27% | Carrarese 38%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Carrarese 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Carrarese at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Carrarese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Benevento 67% | Carrarese 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Apr 2027, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 35% | Draw 27% | Carrarese 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Benevento 1.23 / Carrarese 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 0.840 / def 1.168 | Carrarese attack 0.942 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Carrarese (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Carrarese xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Carrarese kick off?
Benevento vs Carrarese is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 24 April 2027 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
Where is Benevento vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Carrarese part of?
Benevento vs Carrarese is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 35% chance of winning, Carrarese a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Carrarese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Benevento and Carrarese will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Carrarese?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Benevento and Carrarese in?
Benevento (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-D-L. Carrarese (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Benevento's attack rating (0.84) and Carrarese's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Carrarese's attack versus Benevento's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Carrarese Win
35%
2.83
27%
3.71
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.50
1.27
Carrarese xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
10%
10.11
11%
9.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 10.5 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.8 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Benevento and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Benevento and 1.27 for Carrarese, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Carrarese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Benevento come into this having played 3 games, going 0W 1D 2L for 0.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Carrarese sit at 0.33 PPG from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L), a run that reads L-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Carrarese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Benevento on 0.33 PPG, Carrarese on 0.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Benevento are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 0.67 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Benevento have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Carrarese in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Early Season
Carrarese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 games (0.33 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 (0.33 PPG).
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Benevento see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Carrarese see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Benevento at 67%, Carrarese at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Benevento and 33% for Carrarese.
On the defensive side: Benevento have failed to score in 33% of games; Carrarese in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Carrarese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Benevento's games and 67% of Carrarese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Benevento vs Carrarese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Benevento's recent games and 33% of Carrarese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.