Benevento 1-1 Ascoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ascoli at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benevento vs Ascoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 7 as Benevento welcome Ascoli to Stadio Ciro Vigorito. Kick-off is set for Sunday 2 October 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Benevento — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Benevento have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Ascoli have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Ascoli have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ascoli away from home this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Benevento) versus 1.50 (Ascoli). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Benevento, 1 for Ascoli and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2022, ended 1–0 with Benevento winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Benevento trading profile (45 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Ascoli trading profile (45 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benevento 38% versus Ascoli 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Benevento 38% | Ascoli 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.25 xG and Ascoli 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 0.926 / defence 1.101 | Ascoli attack 1.045 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 1.126. Data: 44 Benevento games / 44 Ascoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 36% | Draw 27% | Ascoli 38%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Ascoli 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ascoli at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ascoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Benevento 60% | Ascoli 30%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Ascoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Oct 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 36% | Draw 27% | Ascoli 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Benevento 1.25 / Ascoli 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 0.926 / def 1.101 | Ascoli attack 1.045 / def 1.059 | league avg home 1.276 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Ascoli (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Ascoli xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Ascoli kick off?
Benevento vs Ascoli kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 2 October 2022 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What was the final score in Benevento vs Ascoli?
Benevento 1 - 1 Ascoli.
Where is Benevento vs Ascoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Ascoli part of?
Benevento vs Ascoli is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Ascoli?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 36% chance of winning, Ascoli a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ascoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Ascoli?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Benevento and Ascoli will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Ascoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Ascoli?
Record (3 meetings): Benevento 2W | Draws 0 | Ascoli 1W.
What form are Benevento and Ascoli in?
Benevento (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Ascoli (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Benevento's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Ascoli's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Ascoli's attack versus Benevento's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ascoli Win
36%
2.81
27%
3.74
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.55
1.29
Ascoli xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
10%
10.26
11%
9.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.2 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.7 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Ascoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Benevento and Ascoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Benevento and 1.29 for Ascoli, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Ascoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Benevento's recent record stands at 21W 10D 14L from 45 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ascoli, meanwhile, have gone 21W 10D 14L across 45 games — 1.62 PPG, with D-W-D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Ascoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Benevento on 1.62 PPG, Ascoli on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Benevento have managed 11W 3D 7L from 21 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ascoli's away record stands at 12W 2D 7L across 21 trips, a 1.81 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Benevento are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Ascoli are on 1.31 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Early Season
Ascoli
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Ascoli in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 21W 10D 14L in their last 45 games (1.62 PPG), while Ascoli have gone 21W 10D 14L in their last 45 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benevento at home or Ascoli away?
Ascoli's away record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benevento at home: 1.71 PPG; Ascoli away: 1.81 PPG.
Have Benevento or Ascoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Ascoli in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Benevento and Ascoli runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Benevento's record when hosting Ascoli specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Benevento
2
Draws
2
Ascoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Ascoli?
From 6 meetings on record, Benevento have won 2, Ascoli have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Benevento and Ascoli last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Ascoli 1-0 Benevento.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Benevento see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benevento 48%, Ascoli 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Benevento) and 48% (Ascoli).
On the defensive side: Benevento keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Benevento have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Ascoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Ascoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Benevento's recent matches and 52% of Ascoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benevento vs Ascoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Benevento's recent games and 48% of Ascoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benevento and Ascoli tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Ascoli in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Benevento and Ascoli share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Regular Season - 7, as Benevento and Ascoli drew 1-1 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benevento 1.25 xG and Ascoli 1.29 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benevento attack 0.93 / defence 1.10 against Ascoli attack 1.04 / defence 1.06, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benevento 36% | Draw 27% | Ascoli 38%, with Ascoli to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benevento 38%, Ascoli 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benevento's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Ascoli's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Benevento 1.62 PPG, Ascoli 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.