Bari 1-1 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cremonese at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bari vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bari and Cremonese meet at Stadio Comunale San Nicola in Serie B, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 February 2025 at 16:15 UTC.
Current Form
Bari's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bari's home record at Stadio Comunale San Nicola: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Bari are significantly better at Stadio Comunale San Nicola than their overall form suggests.
Cremonese have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cremonese have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Bari, 1.60 for Cremonese — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Bari, 1 for Cremonese and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Bari — key trading statistics (65 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Cremonese — key trading statistics (65 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bari 57% versus Cremonese 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bari 35% | Cremonese 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 1.05 xG and Cremonese 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 1.079 / defence 1.010 | Cremonese attack 1.118 / defence 0.788. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.093. Cremonese's defence strength of 0.788 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 63 Bari games / 63 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bari 30% | Draw 31% | Cremonese 39%. Fair-value odds: Bari 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | Cremonese 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cremonese are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cremonese if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Bari 60% | Cremonese 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Comunale San Nicola • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Feb 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 30% | Draw 31% | Cremonese 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Bari 1.05 / Cremonese 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 1.079 / def 1.010 | Cremonese attack 1.118 / def 0.788 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Bari xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Cremonese xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bari vs Cremonese kick off?
Bari vs Cremonese kicked off at 16:15 on Saturday 15 February 2025 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Cremonese?
Bari 1 - 1 Cremonese.
Where is Bari vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Cremonese part of?
Bari vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 30% chance of winning, Cremonese a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Bari and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Bari vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Cremonese?
Record (3 meetings): Bari 1W | Draws 1 | Cremonese 1W.
What form are Bari and Cremonese in?
Bari (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Cremonese (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bari's attack at 1.08x the league average against Cremonese's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cremonese's attack (1.12x) against Bari's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
30%
3.34
31%
3.19
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Bari xG
Total xG
2.29
1.23
Cremonese xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
9%
11.47
13%
7.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 12.5 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Bari and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Bari and 1.23 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 65 outings, Bari have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 16W 30D 19L record — D-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Bari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cremonese's form line: 31W 18D 16L from 65 games, 1.71 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Cremonese are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bari.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Bari have posted 1.48 PPG from 33 outings (11W 16D 6L).
On the road, Cremonese have gone 16W 8D 9L from 33 away games — 1.70 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Bari are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.43 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bari and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 16W 30D 19L in their last 65 games (1.20 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 31W 18D 16L in their last 65 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bari at home or Cremonese away?
Cremonese's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bari at home: 1.48 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Bari or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bari have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Cremonese in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bari have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cremonese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Bari
2
Draws
1
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Cremonese?
From 4 meetings on record, Bari have won 1, Cremonese have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Bari 1-1 Cremonese.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bari 61%, Cremonese 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Bari) and 54% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Cremonese in 36%; Cremonese in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bari play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Bari's recent matches and 46% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bari vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Bari's recent games and 54% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bari and Cremonese tend to score early?
Bari have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bari and Cremonese share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Regular Season - 26, as Bari and Cremonese drew 1-1 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.05 xG and Cremonese 1.23 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 1.08 / defence 1.01 against Cremonese attack 1.12 / defence 0.79, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bari 30% | Draw 31% | Cremonese 39%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 35%, Cremonese 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (65 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Cremonese's trading profile (65 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.