Venezia 0-1 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Roma at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs AS Roma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo plays host to Venezia versus AS Roma in Serie A, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Sunday 9 February 2025 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Venezia (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Venezia's home record at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
AS Roma have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Roma's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. AS Roma are 1.00 PPG clear of Venezia in recent Serie A fixtures (1.80 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Venezia have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, AS Roma in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Venezia lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2024, ended 1–2 with AS Roma winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Venezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 59% versus AS Roma 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 62% | AS Roma 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.17 xG and AS Roma 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.774 / defence 1.042 | AS Roma attack 0.918 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.333. Venezia's attack strength of 0.774 is below the league average — the 1.17 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 23 Venezia games / 61 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 31% | Draw 34% | AS Roma 36%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 3.23 | Draw 2.94 | AS Roma 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Venezia 60% | AS Roma 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Feb 2025, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 31% | Draw 34% | AS Roma 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 53% | xG Venezia 1.17 / AS Roma 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 0.774 / def 1.042 | AS Roma attack 0.918 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.27
AS Roma xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs AS Roma kick off?
Venezia vs AS Roma kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 9 February 2025 at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs AS Roma?
Venezia 0 - 1 AS Roma.
Where is Venezia vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs AS Roma part of?
Venezia vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 31% chance of winning, AS Roma a 36% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Venezia and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and AS Roma?
Record (3 meetings): Venezia 1W | Draws 1 | AS Roma 1W.
What form are Venezia and AS Roma in?
Venezia (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. AS Roma (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Venezia's attack rating (0.77) and AS Roma's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — AS Roma's attack (0.92x) against Venezia's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 23/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
31%
3.27
34%
2.98
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.44
1.27
AS Roma xG
3.27
31%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
9%
11.70
11%
8.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.1 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.5 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Venezia and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Venezia and 1.27 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 61 outings, Venezia have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 25W 13D 23L record — D-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Roma's form line: 26W 16D 19L from 61 games, 1.54 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-D. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Venezia against 1.54 for AS Roma. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Venezia have posted 1.87 PPG from 30 outings (17W 5D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — Venezia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, AS Roma have gone 7W 11D 12L from 30 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.54 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AS Roma's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Venezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Venezia are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.62 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AS Roma in 61%.
Last 61 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Blended
AS Roma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 25W 13D 23L in their last 61 games (1.44 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 26W 16D 19L in their last 61 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or AS Roma away?
Venezia's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 1.87 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
AS Roma go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Venezia have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against AS Roma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Venezia
1
Draws
2
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and AS Roma?
From 4 meetings on record, Venezia have won 1, AS Roma have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2025, when Venezia 0-1 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
AS Roma see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Venezia, 67% for AS Roma — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Venezia) and 57% (AS Roma). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AS Roma in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play AS Roma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Venezia's games and 67% of AS Roma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Venezia vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Venezia's matches and 57% of AS Roma's.
Do Venezia and AS Roma tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Venezia 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Venezia 0-1 at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.17 xG and AS Roma 1.27 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Venezia fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 0.77 / defence 1.04 against AS Roma attack 0.92 / defence 1.10, drawn from 23/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 31% | Draw 34% | AS Roma 36%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 62%, AS Roma 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
AS Roma's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Venezia 1.44 PPG, AS Roma 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AS Roma win broke the near-deadlock. Venezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward. AS Roma (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.