Inter 2-1 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Inter (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Inter face Fiorentina.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Fiorentina travel to Stadio Giuseppe Meazza to take on Inter. The game is scheduled for Monday 10 February 2025, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Inter stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Inter, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Inter's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fiorentina — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Fiorentina have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Inter carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.30 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Inter, 2 for Fiorentina and 1 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2025, ended 0–3 with Fiorentina winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Inter trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
Fiorentina trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inter 44% versus Fiorentina 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inter 59% | Fiorentina 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inter 1.58 xG and Fiorentina 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inter attack 1.364 / defence 0.962 | Fiorentina attack 1.114 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.368 / away 1.316. Inter carry an above-average attack strength of 1.364 — their λ of 1.58 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 61 Inter games / 61 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inter 39% | Draw 30% | Fiorentina 31%. Fair-value odds: Inter 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Fiorentina 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Inter as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Inter offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Inter 70% | Fiorentina 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inter vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza • Kick-off: Monday 10 Feb 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inter 39% | Draw 30% | Fiorentina 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 63% | xG Inter 1.58 / Fiorentina 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Inter attack 1.364 / def 0.962 | Fiorentina attack 1.114 / def 0.850 | league avg home 1.368 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Inter (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Inter xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Fiorentina xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inter vs Fiorentina kick off?
Inter vs Fiorentina kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 10 February 2025 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What was the final score in Inter vs Fiorentina?
Inter 2 - 1 Fiorentina.
Where is Inter vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What competition is Inter vs Fiorentina part of?
Inter vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Inter vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Inter a 39% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inter vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Inter and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Inter vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inter and Fiorentina?
Record (7 meetings): Inter 4W | Draws 1 | Fiorentina 2W.
What form are Inter and Fiorentina in?
Inter (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Fiorentina (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Inter's attack at 1.36x the league average against Fiorentina's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fiorentina's attack versus Inter's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
39%
2.57
30%
3.35
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Inter xG
Total xG
3.00
1.41
Fiorentina xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
10%
10.51
6%
15.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.1 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.2 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inter vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Inter and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Inter and 1.41 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Inter vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Inter come into this having played 61 games, going 44W 13D 4L for 2.38 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-L. The sample for Inter is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fiorentina sit at 1.67 PPG from 61 outings (29W 15D 17L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Inter carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.71 PPG clear of Fiorentina — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Inter's home form reads 21W 7D 2L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Fiorentina have taken 1.43 points per game from 30 outings (12W 7D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Inter are averaging 2.38 goals scored and 0.72 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.66 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Inter have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inter
Blended
Fiorentina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inter and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Inter have gone 44W 13D 4L in their last 61 games (2.38 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 29W 15D 17L in their last 61 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inter at home or Fiorentina away?
Inter's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inter at home: 2.33 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Inter or Fiorentina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Inter have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, Fiorentina in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Inter and Fiorentina runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Sep 2023, when Inter won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Inter's record when hosting Fiorentina specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Inter
2
Draws
2
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inter and Fiorentina?
From 10 meetings on record, Inter have won 6, Fiorentina have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Inter and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Fiorentina 1-1 Inter.
Who has won more matches between Inter and Fiorentina?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 73% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Inter 50%, Fiorentina 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Inter) and 40% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: Inter keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Fiorentina in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inter home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inter play Fiorentina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Inter's recent matches and 47% of Fiorentina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Inter vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Inter's recent games and 40% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Inter and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Inter have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Inter edge out Fiorentina 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter beat Fiorentina 2-1 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter 1.58 xG and Fiorentina 1.41 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter attack 1.36 / defence 0.96 against Fiorentina attack 1.11 / defence 0.85, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inter 39% | Draw 30% | Fiorentina 31%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inter 59%, Fiorentina 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inter's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Fiorentina's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.67. That form edge translated into the three points. Fiorentina (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.