Udinese 0-1 Inter – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Inter (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Udinese face Inter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Inter travel to Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli to take on Udinese. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 January 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Udinese — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Udinese's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Inter stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Inter, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Inter's form when playing away from home: 8W 0D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Inter — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Inter have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 7 of the last 9 encounters against Udinese's 2 victories.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2025, ended 2–1 with Udinese winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Inter have won 7 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Udinese in-play and half-time data (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Inter in-play and half-time data (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 55% versus Inter 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 50% | Inter 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 0.93 xG and Inter 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.956 / defence 1.153 | Inter attack 1.275 / defence 0.812. League average goals — home 1.191 / away 1.180. Inter have an above-average attack strength of 1.275 — the away xG of 1.74 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 58 Udinese games / 58 Inter games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 20% | Draw 24% | Inter 56%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 5.00 | Draw 4.17 | Inter 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Inter (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Inter at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Udinese 60% | Inter 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jan 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 20% | Draw 24% | Inter 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 50% | xG Udinese 0.93 / Inter 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.956 / def 1.153 | Inter attack 1.275 / def 0.812 | league avg home 1.191 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Inter (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Inter xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Inter kick off?
Udinese vs Inter kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 17 January 2026 at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Inter?
Udinese 0 - 1 Inter.
Where is Udinese vs Inter being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
What competition is Udinese vs Inter part of?
Udinese vs Inter is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 20% chance of winning, Inter a 56% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Udinese and Inter will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Inter?
Record (9 meetings): Udinese 2W | Draws 0 | Inter 7W.
What form are Udinese and Inter in?
Udinese (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Inter (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Udinese's attack at 0.96x the league average against Inter's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Inter's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.7%), 0-2 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
20%
5.02
24%
4.24
56%
1.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
0 – 2
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.66
1.74
Inter xG
5.02
20%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
1.77
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
18%
5.67
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
4%
28.46
22%
4.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 12.1 | 10.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Udinese and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Udinese and 1.74 for Inter, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Inter?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 58 outings, Udinese have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 19W 13D 26L record — L-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Inter's form line: 39W 10D 9L from 58 games, 2.19 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Inter is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Inter are the form team by 0.98 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Udinese.
Venue Form
On home soil, Udinese have posted 1.21 PPG from 28 outings (9W 7D 12L).
On the road, Inter have gone 18W 5D 5L from 28 away games — 2.11 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Udinese are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 2.10 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Inter in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Blended
Inter
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Inter in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 19W 13D 26L in their last 58 games (1.21 PPG), while Inter have gone 39W 10D 9L in their last 58 (2.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Inter away?
Inter's away record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.21 PPG; Inter away: 2.11 PPG.
Have Udinese or Inter been keeping clean sheets recently?
Udinese have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Inter in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Dec 2023, when Inter won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Udinese's record when hosting Inter specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Udinese
0
Draws
8
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Inter?
From 10 meetings on record, Udinese have won 2, Inter have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Inter last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Udinese 0-1 Inter.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Inter?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 46%, Inter 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Udinese) and 46% (Inter).
On the defensive side: Udinese keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Inter in 54%; Udinese have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Inter?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Udinese's recent matches and 36% of Inter's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Udinese vs Inter usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Udinese's recent games and 46% of Inter's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Inter tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Inter in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Inter edge out Udinese 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter beat Udinese 0-1 at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 0.93 xG and Inter 1.74 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Udinese fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.96 / defence 1.15 against Inter attack 1.27 / defence 0.81, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 20% | Draw 24% | Inter 56%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 50%, Inter 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Inter's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.19 PPG against 1.21. That form edge translated into the three points. Udinese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward. Inter (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.