Udinese 1-1 Como – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Como at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Udinese vs Como encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Udinese host Como at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli in Serie A, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 August 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Udinese — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Udinese haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Udinese have posted 3W 2D 5L at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, Como have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Como haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Como's away record: 7W 2D 1L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Como's 2.00 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Udinese's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Udinese have won 1, Como 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Udinese in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Como in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 45% versus Como 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 45% | Como 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.00 xG and Como 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.904 / defence 0.928 | Como attack 1.134 / defence 0.868. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.180. Data: 38 Udinese games / 38 Como games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Udinese 30% | Draw 29% | Como 42%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | Como 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Como are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Como offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 20% | Como 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Como | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Aug 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 30% | Draw 29% | Como 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Udinese 1.00 / Como 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.904 / def 0.928 | Como attack 1.134 / def 0.868 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Como (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Como xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Como kick off?
Udinese vs Como kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 22 August 2026 at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Como?
Udinese 1 - 1 Como.
Where is Udinese vs Como being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
What competition is Udinese vs Como part of?
Udinese vs Como is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Como?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 30% chance of winning, Como a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Como the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Como?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Udinese and Como will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Como have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Como?
Record (4 meetings): Udinese 1W | Draws 1 | Como 2W.
What form are Udinese and Como in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Udinese (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Udinese's attack at 0.90x the league average against Como's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Como's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Como Win
30%
3.38
29%
3.50
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.24
1.24
Como xG
3.38
30%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
9%
11.70
15%
6.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Como?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Udinese and Como expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Udinese and 1.24 for Como, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Como?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Udinese have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 14W 8D 16L record — D-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. Udinese haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Como's form line: 20W 11D 7L from 38 games, 1.87 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W. Como haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Como are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Udinese.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Udinese have posted 1.21 PPG from 19 outings (6W 5D 8L).
On the road, Como have gone 10W 5D 4L from 19 away games — 1.84 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Como come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Udinese are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Como are on 1.71 scored and 0.76 conceded.
Defensively: Como in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Pre-Season
Como
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Como in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 14W 8D 16L in their last 38 games (1.32 PPG), while Como have gone 20W 11D 7L in their last 38 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Como away?
Como's away record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.21 PPG; Como away: 1.84 PPG.
Have Udinese or Como been keeping clean sheets recently?
Udinese have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Como in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Udinese and Como runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Jan 2025, when Como won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Udinese's record when hosting Como specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Udinese
2
Draws
2
Como
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Como?
From 5 meetings on record, Udinese have won 1, Como have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Como last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Udinese 1-1 Como.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Como?
Como have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 37%, Como 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Udinese) and 47% (Como).
On the defensive side: Udinese keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Como in 47%; Udinese have failed to score in 37% of games; Como in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Como away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Como?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Udinese's recent matches and 37% of Como's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Udinese vs Como usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Udinese's recent games and 47% of Como's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Como tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Como in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Udinese and Como share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli, Regular Season - 1, as Udinese and Como drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.00 xG and Como 1.24 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.90 / defence 0.93 against Como attack 1.13 / defence 0.87, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 30% | Draw 29% | Como 42%, with Como to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 45%, Como 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Como's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Como arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.32. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.