Torino 1-1 Udinese – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Torino at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Torino vs Udinese encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Udinese travel to Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino to take on Torino in Serie A (matchday 17). The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 December 2023 at 14:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Torino stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

In front of their own supporters, Torino have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across their last 10 games, Udinese have recorded 1W 7D 2L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Udinese's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

Torino are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Torino have won 2, Udinese 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Feb 2023, ended Torino 1–0 Udinese — a Torino win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Torino trading profile (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games).

Udinese trading profile (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 58%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Torino 43% versus Udinese 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Torino 33% | Udinese 48%). Note also that Udinese surrender HT leads in 58% of cases while Torino recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Torino 1.42 xG and Udinese 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Torino attack 0.886 / defence 0.777 | Udinese attack 0.763 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 1.395 / away 1.136. Udinese's attack rating of 0.763 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.67. Torino have a tight defence (rating 0.777), which is pulling Udinese's projected output down. Data: built from Torino's last 54 games and Udinese's last 54.

Result probabilities: Torino 54% | Draw 28% | Udinese 17%. Fair-value odds: Torino 1.84 | Draw 3.52 | Udinese 5.84. Torino hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Torino are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Torino offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Torino's last 10 home games and Udinese's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Torino 30% (last 10 home games) | Udinese 50% (last 10 away games).

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