Torino 1-0 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Torino at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Torino face Empoli.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Torino and Empoli meet at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino in Serie A (matchday 16). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 December 2023 at 19:45 UK time.
Form
Torino (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home, Torino have gone 3W 5D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Empoli have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Empoli away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Torino against 1.20 for Empoli. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Torino edge it 1 wins to 0, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 28 Jan 2023, ended Torino 2–2 Empoli — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Torino — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Empoli — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Torino 43% versus Empoli 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Torino 34% | Empoli 36%). Note also that Empoli surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Torino recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Torino 1.42 xG and Empoli 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Torino attack 0.913 / defence 0.839 | Empoli attack 0.869 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.393 / away 1.136. Data: built from Torino's last 53 games and Empoli's last 53.
Result probabilities: Torino 50% | Draw 30% | Empoli 21%. Fair-value odds: Torino 2.02 | Draw 3.35 | Empoli 4.87. Torino hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Torino at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Torino if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Torino's last 10 home games and Empoli's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Torino 40% (last 10 home games) | Empoli 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Torino vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, matchday 16 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino • Kick-off: Saturday 16 December 2023 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Torino 50% | Draw 30% | Empoli 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Torino 1.42 / Empoli 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Torino attack 0.913 / def 0.839 | Empoli attack 0.869 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.393 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Torino (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Torino xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Empoli xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Torino vs Empoli FAQs
What time does Torino vs Empoli kick off?
Torino vs Empoli kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Saturday 16 December 2023 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What was the final score in Torino vs Empoli?
Torino 1 - 0 Empoli.
Where is Torino vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What competition is Torino vs Empoli part of?
Torino vs Empoli is a Serie A fixture (matchday 16) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Torino vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Torino a 50% chance of winning, Empoli a 21% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Torino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Torino vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Torino and Empoli will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Torino vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Torino's attack rating (0.91) and Empoli's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Empoli's attack (0.87x) against Torino's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from Torino's last 53 games and Empoli's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.4%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Torino Win
50%
2.02
30%
3.35
21%
4.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Torino xG
Total xG
2.25
0.83
Empoli xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
4.87
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
24%
4.13
Win to Nil
22%
4.62
5%
20.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 8.8 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 12.4 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 8.8 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Torino vs Empoli Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Torino vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Torino and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Torino and 0.83 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Torino vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Torino's recent record stands at 19W 16D 18L from 53 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-D in the last five.
Empoli, meanwhile, have gone 13W 16D 24L across 53 games — 1.04 PPG, with L-W-L-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Torino against 1.04 for Empoli. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Torino have managed 8W 10D 8L from their last 26 home games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Empoli's away record stands at 4W 10D 12L across their last 26 away games, a 0.85 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Torino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Torino are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 0.89 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Torino
Blended
Empoli
Blended
Torino (Home) vs Empoli (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Torino
Blended
Empoli
Blended
❓ Torino vs Empoli Form FAQs
What form are Torino and Empoli in coming into this match?
Torino have gone 19W 16D 18L in their last 53 games (1.38 PPG), while Empoli have gone 13W 16D 24L in their last 53 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Torino at home or Empoli away?
Torino's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Torino at home: 1.31 PPG; Empoli away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Torino or Empoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Torino have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Empoli in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent in our data was on 15 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Torino have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Torino have gone 2W 2D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Empoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Torino
3
Draws
1
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Torino vs Empoli H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Empoli?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Torino have won 4, Empoli have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Torino and Empoli last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 March 2025: Torino 1-0 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Torino and Empoli?
Torino have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Torino see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Torino 38%, Empoli 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 27% for Torino and 35% for Empoli.
On the defensive side: Torino keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Torino have failed to score in 38% of games; Empoli in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Torino home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Torino vs Empoli Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Torino and Empoli matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Torino's recent matches and 50% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Torino and Empoli matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Torino's recent games and 35% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Torino and Empoli matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 54% of Torino's recent matches and 69% of Empoli's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Torino edge out Empoli 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Torino beat Empoli 1-0 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Torino 1.42 xG and Empoli 0.83 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Empoli landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Torino attack 0.91 / defence 0.84 against Empoli attack 0.87 / defence 1.12, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Torino 50% | Draw 30% | Empoli 21%, with Torino to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Torino 34%, Empoli 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Torino's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Empoli's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Torino 1.38 PPG, Empoli 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Torino win broke the near-deadlock. Torino (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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