Salernitana 2-1 Lazio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lazio at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Salernitana vs Lazio encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Salernitana host Lazio at Stadio Arechi in Serie A (matchday 13). Kick-off is Saturday 25 November 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Salernitana — last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Salernitana at home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Salernitana are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Lazio have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Lazio have gone 4W 0D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Lazio — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Salernitana, 3 for Lazio and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 19 Feb 2023, ended Salernitana 0–2 Lazio — a Lazio win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Salernitana in-play tendencies (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Lazio in-play tendencies (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salernitana 54% versus Lazio 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salernitana 54% | Lazio 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salernitana 1.04 xG and Lazio 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salernitana attack 0.826 / defence 1.356 | Lazio attack 0.954 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.301 / away 1.157. Salernitana's defence rating of 1.356 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lazio's projected output up. Data: built from Salernitana's last 50 games and Lazio's last 50.
Result probabilities: Salernitana 26% | Draw 26% | Lazio 48%. Fair-value odds: Salernitana 3.78 | Draw 3.86 | Lazio 2.10. Lazio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lazio are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lazio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Salernitana 50% (last 10 home games) | Lazio 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salernitana vs Lazio | Competition: Serie A, matchday 13 | Venue: Stadio Arechi • Kick-off: Saturday 25 November 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salernitana 26% | Draw 26% | Lazio 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Salernitana 1.04 / Lazio 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Salernitana attack 0.826 / def 1.356 | Lazio attack 0.954 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.301 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Lazio (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Salernitana xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Lazio xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Salernitana vs Lazio FAQs
What time does Salernitana vs Lazio kick off?
Salernitana vs Lazio kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Stadio Arechi.
What was the final score in Salernitana vs Lazio?
Salernitana 2 - 1 Lazio.
Where is Salernitana vs Lazio being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Arechi.
What competition is Salernitana vs Lazio part of?
Salernitana vs Lazio is a Serie A fixture (matchday 13) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Salernitana vs Lazio?
Our statistical model gives Salernitana a 26% chance of winning, Lazio a 48% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salernitana vs Lazio?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Salernitana and Lazio will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Salernitana vs Lazio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Salernitana's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Lazio's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. The same calculation in reverse, Lazio's attack versus Salernitana's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Salernitana's last 50 games and Lazio's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.2%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
26%
3.78
26%
3.86
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Salernitana xG
Total xG
2.54
1.50
Lazio xG
3.78
26%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
22%
4.46
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
6%
16.89
17%
5.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 11.8 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Salernitana vs Lazio Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Salernitana vs Lazio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Salernitana and Lazio expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Salernitana and 1.50 for Lazio, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Salernitana vs Lazio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Salernitana have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 9W 20D 21L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Lazio's form line: 27W 10D 13L from 50 games, 1.82 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Lazio are the form team by 0.88 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Salernitana.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Salernitana have posted 1.20 PPG from their last 25 home games (7W 9D 9L).
On the road, Lazio have gone 13W 4D 8L from their last 25 away games — 1.72 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lazio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Salernitana are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Lazio are on 1.46 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: Lazio in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salernitana
Blended
Lazio
Blended
Salernitana (Home) vs Lazio (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Salernitana
Blended
Lazio
Blended
❓ Salernitana vs Lazio Form FAQs
What form are Salernitana and Lazio in coming into this match?
Salernitana have gone 9W 20D 21L in their last 50 games (0.94 PPG), while Lazio have gone 27W 10D 13L in their last 50 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salernitana at home or Lazio away?
Lazio's away record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salernitana at home: 1.20 PPG; Lazio away: 1.72 PPG.
Have Salernitana or Lazio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Salernitana have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Lazio in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent in our data was on 12 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 7 Nov 2021, when Lazio won Lazio 3-0 Salernitana.
Salernitana's record when hosting Lazio specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Salernitana
0
Draws
4
Lazio
Recent Meetings
❓ Salernitana vs Lazio H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Lazio?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Salernitana have won 2, Lazio have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Salernitana and Lazio last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 April 2024: Lazio 4-1 Salernitana.
Who has won more matches between Salernitana and Lazio?
Lazio have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salernitana 52%, Lazio 28% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Salernitana) and 36% (Lazio).
On the defensive side: Lazio in 56%; Salernitana have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salernitana home games / Lazio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Salernitana vs Lazio Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Salernitana and Lazio matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Salernitana's recent matches and 28% of Lazio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Salernitana and Lazio matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Salernitana's recent games and 36% of Lazio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Salernitana and Lazio matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Salernitana's recent matches and 68% of Lazio's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Salernitana defy the odds to beat Lazio 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salernitana beat Lazio 2-1 at Stadio Arechi, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salernitana 1.04 xG and Lazio 1.50 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Salernitana beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salernitana attack 0.83 / defence 1.36 against Lazio attack 0.95 / defence 0.97, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salernitana 26% | Draw 26% | Lazio 48%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Salernitana win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salernitana 54%, Lazio 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salernitana's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Lazio's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lazio arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 0.94. Form was overturned, with Salernitana winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lazio (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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