Juventus 1-1 Inter – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Inter at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Juventus face Inter.

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Fixture Analysis

Juventus welcome Inter to Allianz Stadium in Serie A (matchday 13). Kick-off is Sunday 26 November 2023 at 19:45 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Juventus stand at 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

At home, Juventus have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Inter — last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Inter's away record over their last 10 away games: 9W 0D 1L (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 8 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (80%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Juventus 2.50 PPG, Inter 2.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Juventus, 1 for Inter and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 19 Mar 2023, ended Juventus 1–0 Inter — a Juventus win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Juventus trading profile (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.

Inter trading profile (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventus 30% versus Inter 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventus 34% | Inter 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Juventus 1.00 xG and Inter 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventus attack 1.113 / defence 0.778 | Inter attack 1.394 / defence 0.674. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.169. Inter bring a tight defence (rating 0.674, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Juventus's projected output down. Inter have an above-average attack rating of 1.394, which lifts their away xG to 1.27. Juventus have a tight defence (rating 0.778), which is pulling Inter's projected output down. Data: built from Juventus's last 50 games and Inter's last 50.

Result probabilities: Juventus 29% | Draw 28% | Inter 42%. Fair-value odds: Juventus 3.41 | Draw 3.54 | Inter 2.36. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Inter at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Inter offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Juventus 40% (last 10 home games) | Inter 20% (last 10 away games).

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