Napoli 0-0 Parma – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Napoli at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Napoli vs Parma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 16 as Napoli welcome Parma to Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 14 January 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Napoli — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Napoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Napoli's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Napoli are significantly better at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Parma stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Parma's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Napoli) versus 1.40 (Parma). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Napoli, 0 for Parma and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Napoli in-play and half-time data (57 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Parma in-play and half-time data (57 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Napoli 44% versus Parma 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Napoli 46% | Parma 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Napoli 1.54 xG and Parma 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Napoli attack 1.320 / defence 0.942 | Parma attack 0.900 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.202 / away 1.171. Napoli carry an above-average attack strength of 1.320 — their λ of 1.54 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 57 Napoli games / 57 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Napoli 50% | Draw 26% | Parma 24%. Fair-value odds: Napoli 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Parma 4.17. Napoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Napoli as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Napoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Napoli 70% | Parma 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Napoli vs Parma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona • Kick-off: Wednesday 14 Jan 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Napoli 50% | Draw 26% | Parma 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Napoli 1.54 / Parma 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Napoli attack 1.320 / def 0.942 | Parma attack 0.900 / def 0.969 | league avg home 1.202 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Napoli (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Napoli xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Parma xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Napoli vs Parma kick off?
Napoli vs Parma kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 14 January 2026 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What was the final score in Napoli vs Parma?
Napoli 0 - 0 Parma.
Where is Napoli vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What competition is Napoli vs Parma part of?
Napoli vs Parma is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Napoli vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Napoli a 50% chance of winning, Parma a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Napoli vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Napoli and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Napoli vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Parma?
Record (2 meetings): Napoli 1W | Draws 1 | Parma 0W.
What form are Napoli and Parma in?
Napoli (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Parma (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Napoli's attack at 1.32x the league average against Parma's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Parma's attack versus Napoli's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
50%
2.00
26%
3.90
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Napoli xG
Total xG
2.53
0.99
Parma xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
18%
5.41
5%
19.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.2 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Napoli vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Napoli and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Napoli and 0.99 for Parma, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Napoli vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, Napoli have picked up 2.12 PPG on a 36W 13D 8L record — L-W-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Napoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Parma's form line: 12W 21D 24L from 57 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-W. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Napoli are the form team by 1.12 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Parma.
Venue Form
On home soil, Napoli have posted 2.41 PPG from 27 outings (20W 5D 2L).
On the road, Parma have gone 5W 12D 10L from 27 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Napoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Napoli are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.02 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Defensively: Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Napoli
Blended
Parma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Napoli and Parma in coming into this match?
Napoli have gone 36W 13D 8L in their last 57 games (2.12 PPG), while Parma have gone 12W 21D 24L in their last 57 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Napoli at home or Parma away?
Napoli's home record (2.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Napoli at home: 2.41 PPG; Parma away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Napoli or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Parma in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Napoli's record when hosting Parma specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Napoli
3
Draws
0
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Parma?
From 4 meetings on record, Napoli have won 1, Parma have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Napoli and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Parma 1-1 Napoli.
Who has won more matches between Napoli and Parma?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Parma see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Napoli 52%, Parma 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Napoli) and 48% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Napoli keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Parma in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Napoli home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Napoli play Parma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Napoli's recent matches and 56% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Napoli vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Napoli's recent games and 48% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Napoli and Parma tend to score early?
Napoli have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Parma in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Napoli's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Regular Season - 16, as Napoli and Parma drew 0-0 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Napoli 1.54 xG and Parma 0.99 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Napoli fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Parma landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Napoli attack 1.32 / defence 0.94 against Parma attack 0.90 / defence 0.97, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Napoli 50% | Draw 26% | Parma 24%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Napoli 46%, Parma 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Napoli's trading profile (57 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Parma's trading profile (57 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Napoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.78 scoring average — below par going forward. Parma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.