Napoli 0-2 Bologna – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Bologna at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Napoli vs Bologna encounter.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Diego Armando Maradona plays host to Napoli versus Bologna in Serie A (matchday 36). Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024 at 18:00 UK time.

Form

Napoli (all games): 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

At home, Napoli have gone 4W 5D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Bologna's record over their last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). Last five: D D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

When travelling, Bologna have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On a straight form reading, Bologna are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Napoli's last 10 home games and Bologna's last 10 away games) — Napoli have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Bologna in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Napoli, 0 for Bologna and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Sep 2023, ended Napoli 0–0 Bologna — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Napoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 73 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).

Bologna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 73 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 48%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Napoli 51% versus Bologna 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Napoli 53% | Bologna 48%). Note also that Bologna surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Napoli recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 42% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Napoli 1.06 xG and Bologna 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Napoli attack 0.995 / defence 1.213 | Bologna attack 1.027 / defence 0.787. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 1.172. Bologna bring a tight defence (rating 0.787, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Napoli's projected output down. Napoli's defence rating of 1.213 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bologna's projected output up. Data: built from Napoli's last 73 games and Bologna's last 73.

Result probabilities: Napoli 26% | Draw 28% | Bologna 45%. Fair-value odds: Napoli 3.79 | Draw 3.53 | Bologna 2.21. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bologna if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Napoli 80% (last 10 home games) | Bologna 60% (last 10 away games).

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