Lazio 2-0 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lazio (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lazio face Empoli.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lazio and Empoli meet at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A, Regular Season - 36. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 May 2024 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Lazio's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Lazio at Stadio Olimpico this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Empoli (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Empoli's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Lazio's 1.60 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Empoli's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Lazio have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 5 meetings, with Empoli managing just 0 victories and 2 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Dec 2023, ended 2–0 with Lazio winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Lazio and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Lazio — key trading statistics (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Empoli — key trading statistics (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lazio 41% versus Empoli 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lazio 42% | Empoli 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lazio 1.32 xG and Empoli 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lazio attack 0.959 / defence 0.809 | Empoli attack 0.763 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.178. Data: 73 Lazio games / 73 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lazio 50% | Draw 31% | Empoli 20%. Fair-value odds: Lazio 2.00 | Draw 3.23 | Empoli 5.00. Lazio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lazio at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lazio if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Lazio 40% | Empoli 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lazio vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lazio 50% | Draw 31% | Empoli 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 39% | xG Lazio 1.32 / Empoli 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Lazio attack 0.959 / def 0.809 | Empoli attack 0.763 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Lazio (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Lazio xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Empoli xG
39%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lazio vs Empoli kick off?
Lazio vs Empoli kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in Lazio vs Empoli?
Lazio 2 - 0 Empoli.
Where is Lazio vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is Lazio vs Empoli part of?
Lazio vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lazio vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Lazio a 50% chance of winning, Empoli a 20% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lazio vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Lazio and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Lazio vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Empoli?
Record (5 meetings): Lazio 3W | Draws 2 | Empoli 0W.
What form are Lazio and Empoli in?
Lazio (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Empoli (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Lazio's attack rating (0.96) and Empoli's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Empoli's attack (0.76x) against Lazio's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
50%
2.01
31%
3.27
20%
5.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Lazio xG
Total xG
2.05
0.73
Empoli xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
5.10
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
24%
4.15
5%
19.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 9.4 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.0 | 12.4 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 8.2 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lazio vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Lazio and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Lazio and 0.73 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Lazio vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lazio come into this having played 73 games, going 39W 13D 21L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-D.
On the other side, Empoli sit at 1.03 PPG from 73 outings (18W 21D 34L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-D across their last five.
Lazio carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Empoli — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Lazio's home form reads 20W 7D 9L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Empoli have taken 0.83 points per game from 36 outings (6W 12D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lazio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lazio are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 0.86 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Lazio have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lazio
Current Season
Empoli
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lazio and Empoli in coming into this match?
Lazio have gone 39W 13D 21L in their last 73 games (1.78 PPG), while Empoli have gone 18W 21D 34L in their last 73 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lazio at home or Empoli away?
Lazio's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lazio at home: 1.86 PPG; Empoli away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Lazio or Empoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lazio have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Empoli in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Lazio have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lazio have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Empoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Lazio
2
Draws
0
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Empoli?
From 8 meetings on record, Lazio have won 6, Empoli have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lazio and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2025, when Empoli 0-1 Lazio.
Who has won more matches between Lazio and Empoli?
Lazio have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lazio see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lazio 42%, Empoli 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Lazio) and 33% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Lazio keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Empoli in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lazio home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lazio play Empoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Lazio's recent matches and 47% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lazio vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Lazio's recent games and 33% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lazio and Empoli tend to score early?
Lazio have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Empoli in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lazio cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Empoli.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lazio beat Empoli 2-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lazio 1.32 xG and Empoli 0.73 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lazio attack 0.96 / defence 0.81 against Empoli attack 0.76 / defence 1.01, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lazio 50% | Draw 31% | Empoli 20%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lazio 42%, Empoli 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lazio's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Empoli's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Lazio arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.03. That form edge translated into the three points. Lazio (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.