Lecce 1-1 Monza – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Monza at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lecce vs Monza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Monza make the trip to Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare to face Lecce in Serie A, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 April 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lecce have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Lecce's home record at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Monza's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Monza have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Lecce, 1.40 for Monza — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Lecce, who have won 3 of the last 5 meetings against Monza — a 2D 0W return for the visitors.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives Lecce a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Lecce half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Monza half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lecce 49% versus Monza 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lecce 37% | Monza 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lecce 0.93 xG and Monza 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecce attack 0.770 / defence 1.035 | Monza attack 0.874 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.333 / away 1.205. Lecce's attack strength of 0.770 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 71 Lecce games / 71 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lecce 30% | Draw 31% | Monza 39%. Fair-value odds: Lecce 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | Monza 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Monza as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Monza if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lecce 50% | Monza 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lecce vs Monza | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Apr 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lecce 30% | Draw 31% | Monza 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Lecce 0.93 / Monza 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Lecce attack 0.770 / def 1.035 | Monza attack 0.874 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.333 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Monza (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Lecce xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Monza xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lecce vs Monza kick off?
Lecce vs Monza kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare.
What was the final score in Lecce vs Monza?
Lecce 1 - 1 Monza.
Where is Lecce vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare.
What competition is Lecce vs Monza part of?
Lecce vs Monza is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lecce vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Lecce a 30% chance of winning, Monza a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lecce vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Lecce and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Lecce vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Monza?
Record (5 meetings): Lecce 3W | Draws 2 | Monza 0W.
What form are Lecce and Monza in?
Lecce (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Monza (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Lecce's attack rating (0.77) and Monza's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Monza's attack (0.87x) against Lecce's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
30%
3.29
31%
3.24
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Lecce xG
Total xG
2.02
1.09
Monza xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
10%
9.79
15%
6.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 14.4 | 7.9 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lecce vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Lecce and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Lecce and 1.09 for Monza, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Lecce vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lecce come into this having played 71 games, going 16W 23D 32L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-W.
On the other side, Monza sit at 1.34 PPG from 71 outings (25W 20D 26L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Lecce against 1.34 for Monza. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Lecce's home form reads 9W 13D 13L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Monza have taken 1.31 points per game from 35 outings (12W 10D 13L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lecce are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.17 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 71 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lecce
Current Season
Monza
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lecce and Monza in coming into this match?
Lecce have gone 16W 23D 32L in their last 71 games (1.00 PPG), while Monza have gone 25W 20D 26L in their last 71 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lecce at home or Monza away?
Monza's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lecce at home: 1.14 PPG; Monza away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Lecce or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lecce have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Monza in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lecce won 3-0 on 1 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lecce have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Monza — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Lecce
4
Draws
0
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Monza?
From 9 meetings on record, Lecce have won 5, Monza have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lecce and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when Lecce 3-2 Monza.
Who has won more matches between Lecce and Monza?
Lecce have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lecce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lecce 57%, Monza 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Lecce) and 43% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Lecce have failed to score in 31% of games; Monza in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lecce home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lecce play Monza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Lecce's recent matches and 40% of Monza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lecce vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Lecce's recent games and 43% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lecce and Monza tend to score early?
Lecce have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Monza in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lecce and Monza share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lecce and Monza finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecce 0.93 xG and Monza 1.09 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecce attack 0.77 / defence 1.03 against Monza attack 0.87 / defence 0.91, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lecce 30% | Draw 31% | Monza 39%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecce 37%, Monza 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lecce's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Monza's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lecce 1.00 PPG, Monza 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.