Lecce 0-0 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genoa at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lecce vs Genoa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Genoa make the trip to Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare to face Lecce in Serie A, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 January 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Lecce (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lecce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lecce's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Genoa have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genoa away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Lecce, 1.30 for Genoa — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Lecce lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jan 2024, ended 1–2 with Genoa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Lecce — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Genoa — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lecce 41% versus Genoa 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lecce 38% | Genoa 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lecce 1.07 xG and Genoa 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecce attack 0.871 / defence 1.146 | Genoa attack 0.857 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.323 / away 1.349. Data: 56 Lecce games / 56 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lecce 30% | Draw 28% | Genoa 42%. Fair-value odds: Lecce 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | Genoa 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Genoa at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genoa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Lecce 50% | Genoa 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lecce vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Jan 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lecce 30% | Draw 28% | Genoa 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Lecce 1.07 / Genoa 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Lecce attack 0.871 / def 1.146 | Genoa attack 0.857 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.323 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Genoa (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Lecce xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Genoa xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lecce vs Genoa kick off?
Lecce vs Genoa kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 5 January 2025 at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare.
What was the final score in Lecce vs Genoa?
Lecce 0 - 0 Genoa.
Where is Lecce vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare.
What competition is Lecce vs Genoa part of?
Lecce vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lecce vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Lecce a 30% chance of winning, Genoa a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lecce vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Lecce and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Lecce vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Genoa?
Record (2 meetings): Lecce 1W | Draws 0 | Genoa 1W.
What form are Lecce and Genoa in?
Lecce (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Genoa (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Lecce's attack rating (0.87) and Genoa's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Genoa's attack (0.86x) against Lecce's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
30%
3.37
28%
3.56
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Lecce xG
Total xG
2.39
1.33
Genoa xG
3.37
30%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
8%
12.69
15%
6.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 12.1 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lecce vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Lecce and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Lecce and 1.33 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Lecce vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lecce's recent record stands at 12W 18D 26L from 56 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Lecce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Genoa, meanwhile, have gone 16W 20D 20L across 56 games — 1.21 PPG, with W-D-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.96 PPG for Lecce against 1.21 for Genoa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Lecce have managed 8W 9D 10L from 27 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Genoa's away record stands at 8W 8D 11L across 27 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lecce are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.09 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lecce
Blended
Genoa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lecce and Genoa in coming into this match?
Lecce have gone 12W 18D 26L in their last 56 games (0.96 PPG), while Genoa have gone 16W 20D 20L in their last 56 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lecce at home or Genoa away?
Lecce's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lecce at home: 1.22 PPG; Genoa away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lecce have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Genoa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Lecce
2
Draws
2
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Genoa?
From 6 meetings on record, Lecce have won 2, Genoa have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lecce and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Lecce 1-0 Genoa.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lecce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Genoa see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lecce 44%, Genoa 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Lecce) and 41% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Lecce have failed to score in 37% of games; Genoa in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lecce home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lecce play Genoa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Lecce's recent matches and 48% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lecce vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Lecce's recent games and 41% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lecce and Genoa tend to score early?
Lecce have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Genoa in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lecce's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare, Regular Season - 19, as Lecce and Genoa drew 0-0 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecce 1.07 xG and Genoa 1.33 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lecce fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Genoa landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecce attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Genoa attack 0.86 / defence 0.93, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lecce 30% | Draw 28% | Genoa 42%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecce 38%, Genoa 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lecce's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Genoa's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lecce 0.96 PPG, Genoa 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lecce (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.