Juventus 1-1 Inter – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Inter at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juventus vs Inter fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 13 as Juventus welcome Inter to Allianz Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 November 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Juventus stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Juventus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Allianz Stadium, Juventus have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Inter — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Inter, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Inter's away record: 9W 0D 1L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 8 away clean sheets from 10 games (80%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Juventus 2.50 PPG, Inter 2.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Juventus, 1 for Inter and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2023, ended 1–0 with Juventus winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Juventus trading profile (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
Inter trading profile (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventus 30% versus Inter 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventus 34% | Inter 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventus 1.00 xG and Inter 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventus attack 1.113 / defence 0.778 | Inter attack 1.394 / defence 0.674. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.169. Inter's defence strength of 0.674 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Inter have an above-average attack strength of 1.394 — the away xG of 1.27 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Juventus's defence rating of 0.778 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 50 Juventus games / 50 Inter games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventus 29% | Draw 28% | Inter 42%. Fair-value odds: Juventus 3.45 | Draw 3.57 | Inter 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Inter at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Inter offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Juventus 40% | Inter 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventus vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Allianz Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Nov 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventus 29% | Draw 28% | Inter 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Juventus 1.00 / Inter 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Juventus attack 1.113 / def 0.778 | Inter attack 1.394 / def 0.674 | league avg home 1.336 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Inter (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Juventus xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Inter xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventus vs Inter kick off?
Juventus vs Inter kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Allianz Stadium.
What was the final score in Juventus vs Inter?
Juventus 1 - 1 Inter.
Where is Juventus vs Inter being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadium.
What competition is Juventus vs Inter part of?
Juventus vs Inter is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juventus vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives Juventus a 29% chance of winning, Inter a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventus vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Juventus and Inter will score (BTTS).
Will Juventus vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Inter?
Record (4 meetings): Juventus 2W | Draws 1 | Inter 1W.
What form are Juventus and Inter in?
Juventus (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Inter (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Juventus's attack at 1.11x the league average against Inter's defence at 0.67x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Inter's attack versus Juventus's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
29%
3.41
28%
3.54
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Juventus xG
Total xG
2.27
1.27
Inter xG
3.41
29%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
8%
12.11
16%
6.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventus vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Juventus and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Juventus and 1.27 for Inter, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventus vs Inter?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Juventus have picked up 2.02 PPG on a 31W 8D 11L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Juventus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Inter's form line: 33W 4D 13L from 50 games, 2.06 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W. The sample for Inter is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Juventus on 2.02 PPG, Inter on 2.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Juventus have posted 2.29 PPG from 24 outings (17W 4D 3L).
On the road, Inter have gone 14W 3D 7L from 24 away games — 1.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Juventus are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 2.00 scored and 0.96 conceded. Inter's attacking output running into Juventus's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Juventus have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games.
Defensively: Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their games; Inter in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventus
Blended
Inter
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventus and Inter in coming into this match?
Juventus have gone 31W 8D 11L in their last 50 games (2.02 PPG), while Inter have gone 33W 4D 13L in their last 50 (2.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventus at home or Inter away?
Juventus's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventus at home: 2.29 PPG; Inter away: 1.88 PPG.
Have Juventus or Inter been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their recent games, Inter in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Juventus and Inter runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Juventus's record when hosting Inter specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Juventus
3
Draws
3
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Inter?
From 10 meetings on record, Juventus have won 4, Inter have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Juventus and Inter last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Inter 3-2 Juventus.
Who has won more matches between Juventus and Inter?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventus 38%, Inter 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Juventus) and 67% (Inter).
On the defensive side: Juventus keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Inter in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventus home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventus play Inter?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Juventus's recent matches and 54% of Inter's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juventus vs Inter usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Juventus's recent games and 67% of Inter's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventus and Inter tend to score early?
Juventus have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Inter in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Juventus and Inter share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Allianz Stadium, Regular Season - 13, as Juventus and Inter drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventus 1.00 xG and Inter 1.27 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventus attack 1.11 / defence 0.78 against Inter attack 1.39 / defence 0.67, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventus 29% | Draw 28% | Inter 42%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventus 34%, Inter 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventus's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
Inter's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juventus 2.02 PPG, Inter 2.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Juventus (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Inter (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.