Juventus 0-0 AC Milan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juventus at 43%, yet in-form AC Milan provide a compelling counter-argument — this Juventus vs AC Milan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Juventus host AC Milan at Allianz Stadium in Serie A (matchday 34). Kick-off is Saturday 27 April 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Juventus — last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Juventus at home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Juventus are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, AC Milan have recorded 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, AC Milan have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour AC Milan — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Juventus, 2 for AC Milan and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Scoring has been limited in the 4 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 22 Oct 2023, ended Juventus 1–0 AC Milan — a Juventus win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Juventus in-play and half-time data (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
AC Milan in-play and half-time data (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventus 37% versus AC Milan 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventus 38% | AC Milan 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventus 1.61 xG and AC Milan 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventus attack 0.996 / defence 0.785 | AC Milan attack 1.436 / defence 1.209. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.204. AC Milan's defence rating of 1.209 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Juventus's projected output up. AC Milan have an above-average attack rating of 1.436, which lifts their away xG to 1.36. Juventus have a tight defence (rating 0.785), which is pulling AC Milan's projected output down. Data: built from Juventus's last 71 games and AC Milan's last 71.
Result probabilities: Juventus 43% | Draw 25% | AC Milan 32%. Fair-value odds: Juventus 2.33 | Draw 3.99 | AC Milan 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.61 / 1.36) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Juventus are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form AC Milan (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juventus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Juventus's last 10 home games and AC Milan's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Juventus 40% (last 10 home games) | AC Milan 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventus vs AC Milan | Competition: Serie A, matchday 34 | Venue: Allianz Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 April 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventus 43% | Draw 25% | AC Milan 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Juventus 1.61 / AC Milan 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Juventus attack 0.996 / def 0.785 | AC Milan attack 1.436 / def 1.209 | league avg home 1.334 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Juventus (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Juventus xG
Expected Goals
1.36
AC Milan xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Juventus vs AC Milan FAQs
What time does Juventus vs AC Milan kick off?
Juventus vs AC Milan kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Allianz Stadium.
What was the final score in Juventus vs AC Milan?
Juventus 0 - 0 AC Milan.
Where is Juventus vs AC Milan being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadium.
What competition is Juventus vs AC Milan part of?
Juventus vs AC Milan is a Serie A fixture (matchday 34) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juventus vs AC Milan?
Our statistical model gives Juventus a 43% chance of winning, AC Milan a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Juventus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventus vs AC Milan?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Juventus and AC Milan will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Juventus vs AC Milan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Juventus's attack rating (1.00) and AC Milan's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AC Milan's attack versus Juventus's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Juventus's last 71 games and AC Milan's last 71 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
43%
2.33
25%
3.99
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Juventus xG
Total xG
2.96
1.36
AC Milan xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
20%
4.98
Win to Nil
11%
9.05
6%
15.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.3 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.0 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Juventus vs AC Milan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventus vs AC Milan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Juventus and AC Milan expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Juventus and 1.36 for AC Milan, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventus vs AC Milan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Juventus come into this having played 71 games, going 40W 16D 15L for 1.92 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-D.
On the other side, AC Milan sit at 1.96 PPG from 71 outings (41W 16D 14L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Juventus on 1.92 PPG, AC Milan on 1.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Juventus's home form reads 23W 8D 4L across their last 35 home games, a 2.20 PPG return.
Away from home, AC Milan have taken 1.71 points per game from their last 35 away games (17W 9D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Juventus are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; AC Milan are on 1.80 scored and 1.15 conceded. AC Milan's attacking output running into Juventus's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventus
Current Season
AC Milan
Current Season
Juventus (Home) vs AC Milan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Juventus
Current Season
AC Milan
Current Season
❓ Juventus vs AC Milan Form FAQs
What form are Juventus and AC Milan in coming into this match?
Juventus have gone 40W 16D 15L in their last 71 games (1.92 PPG), while AC Milan have gone 41W 16D 14L in their last 71 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventus at home or AC Milan away?
Juventus's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventus at home: 2.20 PPG; AC Milan away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Juventus or AC Milan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, AC Milan in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to January 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 6 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Juventus's record when hosting AC Milan specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Juventus
6
Draws
2
AC Milan
Recent Meetings
❓ Juventus vs AC Milan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and AC Milan?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Juventus have won 2, AC Milan have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Juventus and AC Milan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 September 2026: Juventus 1-1 AC Milan.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
AC Milan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventus 37%, AC Milan 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Juventus) and 69% (AC Milan).
On the defensive side: Juventus keep a clean sheet in 51% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventus home games / AC Milan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Juventus vs AC Milan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Juventus and AC Milan matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Juventus's recent matches and 66% of AC Milan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Juventus and AC Milan matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Juventus's recent games and 69% of AC Milan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventus and AC Milan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Juventus's recent matches and 74% of AC Milan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Juventus's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Allianz Stadium, Regular Season - 34, as Juventus and AC Milan drew 0-0 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventus 1.61 xG and AC Milan 1.36 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Juventus fell 1.6 short of their projected output. AC Milan landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventus attack 1.00 / defence 0.79 against AC Milan attack 1.44 / defence 1.21, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventus 43% | Draw 25% | AC Milan 32%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventus 38%, AC Milan 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventus's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and duly kept one.
AC Milan's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juventus 1.92 PPG, AC Milan 1.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Juventus (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.74 scoring average — below par going forward. AC Milan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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