Fiorentina 5-1 Sassuolo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fiorentina at 59% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fiorentina vs Sassuolo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fiorentina and Sassuolo meet at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Serie A (matchday 34). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 28 April 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Fiorentina have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Fiorentina have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Fiorentina are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Sassuolo's record over their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Sassuolo's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across their last 10 road games (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Fiorentina's 1.30 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Sassuolo's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 6 Jan 2024, ended Fiorentina 0–1 Sassuolo — a Sassuolo win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Fiorentina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 70 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Sassuolo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 70 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 64%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 51% versus Sassuolo 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 43% | Sassuolo 57%). Note also that Sassuolo surrender HT leads in 64% of cases while Fiorentina recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.97 xG and Sassuolo 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.152 / defence 0.987 | Sassuolo attack 0.860 / defence 1.291. League average goals — home 1.324 / away 1.181. Sassuolo's defence rating of 1.291 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Fiorentina's projected output up. Data: built from Fiorentina's last 70 games and Sassuolo's last 71.
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 59% | Draw 23% | Sassuolo 18%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 1.69 | Draw 4.39 | Sassuolo 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Fiorentina (59%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fiorentina as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Fiorentina's last 10 home games and Sassuolo's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Fiorentina 60% (last 10 home games) | Sassuolo 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Sassuolo | Competition: Serie A, matchday 34 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Sunday 28 April 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 59% | Draw 23% | Sassuolo 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Fiorentina 1.97 / Sassuolo 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.152 / def 0.987 | Sassuolo attack 0.860 / def 1.291 | league avg home 1.324 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Sassuolo xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fiorentina vs Sassuolo FAQs
What time does Fiorentina vs Sassuolo kick off?
Fiorentina vs Sassuolo kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Sassuolo?
Fiorentina 5 - 1 Sassuolo.
Where is Fiorentina vs Sassuolo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Sassuolo part of?
Fiorentina vs Sassuolo is a Serie A fixture (matchday 34) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Sassuolo?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 59% chance of winning, Sassuolo a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Sassuolo?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Fiorentina and Sassuolo will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Fiorentina vs Sassuolo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Fiorentina's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Sassuolo's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.97. Flip it around — Sassuolo's attack (0.86x) against Fiorentina's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from Fiorentina's last 70 games and Sassuolo's last 71 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
59%
1.69
23%
4.39
18%
5.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.97
1.00
Sassuolo xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
5.56
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
14%
7.17
Win to Nil
22%
4.60
3%
39.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fiorentina vs Sassuolo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Sassuolo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Sassuolo expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.00 for Sassuolo, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Sassuolo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fiorentina come into this having played 70 games, going 28W 19D 23L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-W.
On the other side, Sassuolo sit at 1.01 PPG from 70 outings (18W 17D 35L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-L across their last five.
Fiorentina carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Sassuolo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Fiorentina's home form reads 16W 10D 8L across their last 34 home games, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Sassuolo have taken 0.76 points per game from their last 34 away games (6W 8D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fiorentina are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Sassuolo are on 1.23 scored and 1.76 conceded.
Last 70 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Current Season
Sassuolo
Current Season
Fiorentina (Home) vs Sassuolo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fiorentina
Current Season
Sassuolo
Current Season
❓ Fiorentina vs Sassuolo Form FAQs
What form are Fiorentina and Sassuolo in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 28W 19D 23L in their last 70 games (1.47 PPG), while Sassuolo have gone 18W 17D 35L in their last 70 (1.01 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Sassuolo away?
Fiorentina's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 1.71 PPG; Sassuolo away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 2 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fiorentina won Fiorentina 5-1 Sassuolo on 28 Apr 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fiorentina have gone 2W 2D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sassuolo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Fiorentina
2
Draws
3
Sassuolo
Recent Meetings
❓ Fiorentina vs Sassuolo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Sassuolo?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Fiorentina have won 4, Sassuolo have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Sassuolo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 November 2026: Sassuolo 2-4 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Sassuolo?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 80% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 59%, Sassuolo 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Fiorentina) and 65% (Sassuolo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sassuolo in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Sassuolo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fiorentina vs Sassuolo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fiorentina and Sassuolo matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Fiorentina's games and 56% of Sassuolo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Fiorentina and Sassuolo matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Fiorentina's matches and 65% of Sassuolo's.
Do Fiorentina and Sassuolo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Fiorentina's recent matches and 76% of Sassuolo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fiorentina run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Sassuolo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Sassuolo 5-1 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.97 xG and Sassuolo 1.00 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Fiorentina beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.15 / defence 0.99 against Sassuolo attack 0.86 / defence 1.29, drawn from 70/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 59% | Draw 23% | Sassuolo 18%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 43%, Sassuolo 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Sassuolo's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 1.01. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Fiorentina (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm. Sassuolo (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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