Inter 2-1 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Inter at 71% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Inter vs Genoa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Inter and Genoa meet at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Serie A (matchday 27). This fixture gets under way on Monday 4 March 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Inter have collected 2.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Inter's home record over their last 10 home games: 8W 1D 1L (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Genoa (all games): 4W 5D 1L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Genoa have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Inter's favour (2.80 vs 1.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Inter, 0 for Genoa and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Dec 2023, ended Inter 1–1 Genoa — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Inter — key trading statistics (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; they lead at the break 58% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Genoa — key trading statistics (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inter 44% versus Genoa 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inter 58% | Genoa 39%). Note also that Genoa surrender HT leads in 26% of cases while Inter recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inter 1.99 xG and Genoa 0.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inter attack 1.495 / defence 0.597 | Genoa attack 0.748 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.198. Inter carry an above-average attack rating of 1.495 — their 1.99 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Genoa's attack rating of 0.748 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.54. Inter have a tight defence (rating 0.597), which is pulling Genoa's projected output down. Data: built from Inter's last 64 games and Genoa's last 26.
Result probabilities: Inter 71% | Draw 21% | Genoa 8%. Fair-value odds: Inter 1.41 | Draw 4.69 | Genoa 12.80. The model has a clear lean to Inter (71%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Inter are the pick at 71% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 63%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Inter 30% (last 10 home games) | Genoa 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inter vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, matchday 27 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza • Kick-off: Monday 4 March 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inter 71% | Draw 21% | Genoa 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 37% (No 63%) | xG Inter 1.99 / Genoa 0.54 • Poisson strength factors: Inter attack 1.495 / def 0.597 | Genoa attack 0.748 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.426 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Inter (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Inter xG
Expected Goals
0.54
Genoa xG
37%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Inter vs Genoa FAQs
What time does Inter vs Genoa kick off?
Inter vs Genoa kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Monday 4 March 2024 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What was the final score in Inter vs Genoa?
Inter 2 - 1 Genoa.
Where is Inter vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What competition is Inter vs Genoa part of?
Inter vs Genoa is a Serie A fixture (matchday 27) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Inter vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Inter a 71% chance of winning, Genoa a 8% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inter vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Inter and Genoa will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (63%).
Will Inter vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Inter's attacking strength (1.50x league average) is weighed against Genoa's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.99. Flip it around — Genoa's attack (0.75x) against Inter's defence (0.60x) — and the away total comes out at 0.54.
These ratings are built from Inter's last 64 games and Genoa's last 26 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 15.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.8%), 3-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
71%
1.41
21%
4.69
8%
12.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
15.9%
Home win
3 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Inter xG
Total xG
2.52
0.54
Genoa xG
1.41
71%
Home win
4.69
21%
Draw
12.80
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.71
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
59%
1.71
14%
7.32
Win to Nil
42%
2.41
1%
93.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 8.5 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.9 | 8.5 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.5 | 5.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Inter vs Genoa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Inter vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Inter and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Inter and 0.54 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Inter vs Genoa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 64 outings, Inter have picked up 2.20 PPG on a 45W 6D 13L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Genoa's form line: 29W 20D 15L from 64 games, 1.67 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-W.
Put side by side, Inter are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Genoa.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Inter have posted 2.38 PPG from their last 32 home games (25W 1D 6L).
On the road, Genoa have gone 12W 9D 11L from their last 32 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Inter are averaging 2.16 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.27 scored and 0.92 conceded. Inter's scoring rate against Genoa's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Inter have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games; Genoa in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inter
Blended
Genoa
Blended
Inter (Home) vs Genoa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Inter
Blended
Genoa
Blended
❓ Inter vs Genoa Form FAQs
What form are Inter and Genoa in coming into this match?
Inter have gone 45W 6D 13L in their last 64 games (2.20 PPG), while Genoa have gone 29W 20D 15L in their last 64 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inter at home or Genoa away?
Inter's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inter at home: 2.38 PPG; Genoa away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Inter or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Inter have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Genoa in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Inter and Genoa, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Inter have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Inter won Inter 4-0 Genoa on 21 Aug 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Inter have gone 4W 0D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Genoa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Inter
3
Draws
0
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Inter vs Genoa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Inter and Genoa?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Inter have won 5, Genoa have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Inter and Genoa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: Inter 2-0 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Inter and Genoa?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 69% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Genoa see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Inter 34%, Genoa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Inter) and 47% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Inter keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Genoa in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inter home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Inter vs Genoa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Inter and Genoa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 34% of Inter's recent matches and 50% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Inter and Genoa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Inter's recent games and 47% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Inter and Genoa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Inter's recent matches and 59% of Genoa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Inter edge out Genoa 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter beat Genoa 2-1 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter 1.99 xG and Genoa 0.54 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter attack 1.50 / defence 0.60 against Genoa attack 0.75 / defence 0.93, drawn from 64/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inter 71% | Draw 21% | Genoa 8%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 71%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inter 58%, Genoa 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inter's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Genoa's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.67. That form edge translated into the three points. Genoa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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