Empoli 0-1 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Empoli at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Empoli vs Cagliari encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Cagliari travel to Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena to take on Empoli. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 March 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Empoli — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Empoli's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cagliari stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cagliari's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Empoli have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Empoli have won 1, Cagliari 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 30 Dec 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Empoli in-play tendencies (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Cagliari in-play tendencies (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 44% versus Cagliari 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 38% | Cagliari 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.45 xG and Cagliari 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.763 / defence 1.085 | Cagliari attack 0.646 / defence 1.319. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.194. Empoli's attack strength of 0.763 is below the league average — the 1.45 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Cagliari bring a strong defensive rating of 1.319 — this is suppressing Empoli's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 64 Empoli games / 26 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 50% | Draw 30% | Cagliari 20%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 2.00 | Draw 3.33 | Cagliari 5.00. Empoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Empoli at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Empoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Empoli 30% | Cagliari 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Mar 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 50% | Draw 30% | Cagliari 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Empoli 1.45 / Cagliari 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.763 / def 1.085 | Cagliari attack 0.646 / def 1.319 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Empoli (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Cagliari xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Cagliari kick off?
Empoli vs Cagliari kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 3 March 2024 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Cagliari?
Empoli 0 - 1 Cagliari.
Where is Empoli vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What competition is Empoli vs Cagliari part of?
Empoli vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 50% chance of winning, Cagliari a 20% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Empoli and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Cagliari?
Record (3 meetings): Empoli 1W | Draws 2 | Cagliari 0W.
What form are Empoli and Cagliari in?
Empoli (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. Cagliari (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Empoli's attack rating (0.76) and Cagliari's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cagliari's attack versus Empoli's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
50%
2.01
30%
3.30
20%
5.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.29
0.84
Cagliari xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
5.04
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
22%
4.63
5%
21.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 12.3 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.9 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Empoli and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Empoli and 0.84 for Cagliari, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Cagliari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Empoli come into this having played 64 games, going 16W 20D 28L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-W. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cagliari sit at 1.27 PPG from 64 outings (19W 24D 21L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Empoli on 1.06 PPG, Cagliari on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Empoli's home form reads 10W 7D 14L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Cagliari have taken 0.81 points per game from 31 outings (4W 13D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cagliari's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Empoli are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.17 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Blended
Cagliari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 16W 20D 28L in their last 64 games (1.06 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 19W 24D 21L in their last 64 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Cagliari away?
Empoli's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 1.19 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Empoli's record when hosting Cagliari specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Empoli
3
Draws
1
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Cagliari?
From 6 meetings on record, Empoli have won 2, Cagliari have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2025, when Empoli 0-0 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and Cagliari?
Empoli have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Empoli see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 36%, Cagliari 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Empoli) and 45% (Cagliari).
On the defensive side: Cagliari in 32%; Empoli have failed to score in 42% of games; Cagliari in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Cagliari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Empoli's recent matches and 45% of Cagliari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Empoli vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Empoli's recent games and 45% of Cagliari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Empoli and Cagliari tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cagliari defy the odds to beat Empoli 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cagliari beat Empoli 0-1 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.45 xG and Cagliari 0.84 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Empoli fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.76 / defence 1.08 against Cagliari attack 0.65 / defence 1.32, drawn from 64/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 50% | Draw 30% | Cagliari 20%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Cagliari win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 38%, Cagliari 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cagliari's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Empoli 1.06 PPG, Cagliari 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cagliari win broke the near-deadlock. Empoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Cagliari (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.