Inter 2-2 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Inter at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Inter vs Bologna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Inter host Bologna at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Serie A, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 15 January 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Inter — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 2.60 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Inter, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Inter's home record at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.10 lags behind their overall 2.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Bologna have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Inter are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 2.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Inter have won 3, Bologna 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2024, ended 1–0 with Inter winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Inter in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time.
Bologna in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inter 43% versus Bologna 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inter 57% | Bologna 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inter 1.95 xG and Bologna 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inter attack 1.377 / defence 0.935 | Bologna attack 1.184 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.298. Inter carry an above-average attack strength of 1.377 — their λ of 1.95 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 56 Inter games / 56 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inter 48% | Draw 24% | Bologna 27%. Fair-value odds: Inter 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | Bologna 3.70. Inter hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.95 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Inter at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Inter offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.39 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Inter 60% | Bologna 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inter vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 Jan 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inter 48% | Draw 24% | Bologna 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG Inter 1.95 / Bologna 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Inter attack 1.377 / def 0.935 | Bologna attack 1.184 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.282 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Inter (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Inter xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Bologna xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inter vs Bologna kick off?
Inter vs Bologna kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 15 January 2025 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What was the final score in Inter vs Bologna?
Inter 2 - 2 Bologna.
Where is Inter vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What competition is Inter vs Bologna part of?
Inter vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Inter vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Inter a 48% chance of winning, Bologna a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inter vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Inter and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Inter vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inter and Bologna?
Record (6 meetings): Inter 3W | Draws 1 | Bologna 2W.
What form are Inter and Bologna in?
Inter (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Bologna (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Inter's attack rating (1.38) and Bologna's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus Inter's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
48%
2.06
24%
4.11
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
6.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Inter xG
Total xG
3.39
1.44
Bologna xG
2.06
48%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
2.99
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
14%
7.04
Win to Nil
12%
8.69
4%
25.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 9.5 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inter vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Inter and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Inter and 1.44 for Bologna, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Inter vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 56 outings, Inter have picked up 2.45 PPG on a 42W 11D 3L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Inter is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bologna's form line: 25W 22D 9L from 56 games, 1.73 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-D. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Inter are the form team by 0.72 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bologna.
Venue Form
On home soil, Inter have posted 2.36 PPG from 28 outings (20W 6D 2L).
On the road, Bologna have gone 10W 12D 6L from 28 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Inter are averaging 2.41 goals scored and 0.66 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.45 scored and 0.98 conceded. Inter's scoring rate against Bologna's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Inter have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their games; Bologna in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inter
Blended
Bologna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inter and Bologna in coming into this match?
Inter have gone 42W 11D 3L in their last 56 games (2.45 PPG), while Bologna have gone 25W 22D 9L in their last 56 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inter at home or Bologna away?
Inter's home record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inter at home: 2.36 PPG; Bologna away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Inter or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Inter have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their recent games, Bologna in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2021, when Inter won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Inter's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Inter
3
Draws
3
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inter and Bologna?
From 10 meetings on record, Inter have won 4, Bologna have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Inter and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Bologna 3-3 Inter.
Who has won more matches between Inter and Bologna?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Inter 46%, Bologna 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Inter) and 57% (Bologna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Inter keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Bologna in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inter home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inter play Bologna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Inter's recent matches and 57% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Inter vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Inter's matches and 57% of Bologna's.
Do Inter and Bologna tend to score early?
Inter have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Bologna in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Inter and Bologna share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 19, as Inter and Bologna drew 2-2 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter 1.95 xG and Bologna 1.44 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter attack 1.38 / defence 0.94 against Bologna attack 1.18 / defence 1.10, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inter 48% | Draw 24% | Bologna 27%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inter 57%, Bologna 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inter's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and conceded here.
Bologna's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.45 PPG against 1.73. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Inter (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.